BOE inflation report hearing on the agenda this morning
Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we look to get things going in the session ahead. The dollar is notably gaining some poise since overnight trading after Fed dove James Bullard all but ruled out a 50 bps rate cut next month, whilst making a case for an "insurance cut" rather than the start of an "easing cycle".
That's shifting market expectations a little in the new day but a lot will hinge on how trade talks progress following the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. If things get back on track or at least is suggestive of heading down that direction, it'll solidify a case for a 'one and done' rate cut next month before the Fed moves to the sidelines.
Looking ahead, there isn't much on the economic calendar to move things along - much like it has been this week - before we get US data so expect a more mixed session as traders keep the focus on US-China trade talks amid month-end and quarter-end flows.
0600 GMT - Germany July Gfk consumer confidence survey
Prior release can be found here. Confidence levels towards the German economy have been rather weak as of late and this is one of those readings which has reflected that sentiment; and will likely still continue to do so. A minor data point.
0645 GMT - France June consumer confidence data
Prior release can be found here. There has been some improvement in confidence levels towards French economic conditions but the rebound is largely ascribed to improved sentiment following the yellow vest protest at the end of last year. Low-tier data.
0800 GMT - Switzerland June Credit Suisse investor sentiment survey
The reading measures analysts' expectations on the Swiss economy and other economic expectations over the next 6 months. A minor data point.
0830 GMT - UK Finance May mortgage approvals
Prior report can be found here. The data measures only a proportion of the demand in the UK housing market - those which are approved by High Street Banks in the UK.
0915 GMT - BOE inflation report hearing before the Treasury Select Committee
BOE governor Mark Carney will be joined by MPC members Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Saunders at the hearing today. The initial hearing was postponed so this will cover the inflation report released in May as detailed here. Do be aware that the BOE has had a fresh take on economic developments via their June meeting decision as seen here, so I would expect them to speak more along those lines rather than stick with the May outlook. Nonetheless, the central bank has no leeway to tweak monetary policy given Brexit uncertainty so there shouldn't be anything that will offer markets anything new.
1100 GMT - US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 21 June
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. Not the biggest of data points, but a general indicator of the housing sector sentiment.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!