Down the bottom of the post, Barclays on AUD and NZD
2315GMT - RBNZ Governor Wheeler and Fin Min English at a parliamentary committee. Expect some comments and some grappling with the NZD. English from 2315GMT, Wheeler from 0010GMT.
2350GMT - Japan Industrial Production (preliminary for October)
- expected 0.0% m/m, prior +0.6%
- and -1.3% y/y, prior +1.5%
0000GMT - New Zealand - ANZ Activity Outlook and Business Confidence
priors 38.4 and 24.5 respectivewly
0001GMT - UK November data; GfK Consumer Confidence (expected -4, prior -3) and Lloyds Business Barometer (prior 37). Neither should move GBP too much
0030GMT - Australian Building Approvals for October
- expected +2.0% m/m, prior -8.7% (That big dip in September is in keeping with the weakening in the trend for approvals. I expect that trend softening to continue, though m/m swings will be, as usual, volatile.)
- expected -6.2% y/y, prior -6.4%
- Also, private sector credit
0145GMT - China - WPAC/MNI Consumer Sentiment for November, prior 117.1
0200GMT - New Zealand October money supply data
0400GMT - Japan vehicle production for October
0500GMT - Japan housing starts, construction orders (October) and small business confidence (November). The data from Japan is unlikely to be too much of a yen mover.
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ps. Here is Barclays on the AUD and NZD (eFX):
AUD and to a lesser extent NZD, managed to retrace some losses at the end of last week and performed better than many major currencies. Although there has been some pressure from higher US yields, Australian yields have also moved higher, albeit less so than in the US.
In any case both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been less sensitive than other currencies to yield differentials while the relative strength in iron ore prices has given AUD some support recently.
Data this week in Australia includes October building approvals (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday). Consensus expectations forecast building approvals to rise on the month but will continue to contract on an annual basis. Meanwhile, we expect retail sales to rise less than market expectations 0.1% (consensus 0.3%). Although this may weigh on the AUD slightly, the greater influence will be the USD and commodity movements.
There is little on the data front in New Zealand leaving broader USD moves as the main driver for the kiwi too.
In this respect, our view of some potential USD consolidation in the near term suggests that both AUD and NZD may make up further ground over the week.
The USD and commodity movements the big influence on AUD. Righto then. TYVM.