April employment data is due from Australia today
At 0130GMT
Employment Change:
- expected 4.0K, prior was a very solid+37.7K. More on the prior here and here
Unemployment Rate:
- expected 6.2%, prior 6.1%
Unemployment trend is much flatter in recent months after Australian Bureau of Statistics revisions. Graph via ANZ.
Full Time Employment Change,
- prior was 31.5K
Part Time Employment Change,
- prior was 6.1K
Participation Rate, expected is 64.8%,
- prior was 64.8%
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The AUD is benefitting from this latest USD weakness, as well as a perception (correct IMO) that the RBA is now done (for at least, say, 6 months, barring any systemic shock). The RBA will adopt an easing bias on Friday in the SOMP (I'll have more on this), but the question is, who'll believe them? They're done for now. If it's a weak employment number I suspect we'll see some trader selling but longer time-frame players will be there on bids a little lower. I haven't got levels as yet for the day, but above 0.8 should cap for now. I suspect the AUD/USD will be rangey with a bias to up until US data shows signs of improving and talk of Fed lift-off rekindles.