Market-moving data due from Australia and New Zealand today, and the potential for Chinese stock market movements to weigh further on the currencies

2145GMT - New Zealand - October Building Consents (also known as Building Permits) m/m,

  • prior was -5.7%, and the month prior to that was revised lower also. This is a volatile data set. The August and September declines came after a huge jump in July (+20%) and for today I expect we'll see an improvement, confirmation that the overall trend in this indicator is higher.

2330GMT - Australia - TD Securities/Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge for November,

  • prior was 0.0% m/m and 1.8% y/y
  • For months (years) now I've been writing that 'inflation is not a problem' in Australia ... and I've been writing that without bothering to specify that high inflation is not a problem. Which, of course, it isn't in Australia and pretty much any(developed economy)where else. But, what of low inflation? Today's data should once again show low inflation, towards the bottom end of the RBA target range (2 to 3%), if not under its lower bound. I don't expect to see any explicit RBA policy response to this yet, but its something on the back burner to watch.

0000GMT - Australia - HIA New Home Sales for October

  • prior was -4.0%

0000GMT - New Zealand - business confidence and activity indicator

  • ANZ Business confidence for November, prior was 10.5
  • ANZ Activity Outlook for November, prior was 23.7
  • It's the confidence number that will attract most attention. It has bounced back somewhat, but as dairy prices have slid away again the sustainability of the bounce will be the question today. A disappointment should be a negative input for the NZD

0030GMT - Australia - Q3 company profits and inventories

  • Company operating profit for Q3, expected is +1.1% q/q, prior was -1.9%
  • Company inventories for Q3 (sa) expected is flat at 0.0% q/q change, prior was flat at 0.0%
  • The big data event for the week in Australia is the GDP on Wednesday. This data is will be watched as in an (incomes) input to the GDP. While it appears the RBA is on hold for a good while to come (there is a meeting tomorrow - Tuesday - on hold is expected and then its a 2 month break until the next meeting in February). Nevertheless a poor result on this data should be a negative input for the AUD while on expected or a beat will add stability and support. Given the outlook for the RBA, though, I expected the impact will be muted.

0030GMT also - Australia - Private Sector Credit for October

  • Private Sector Credit m/m, expected is +0.6%, prior was +0.8%
  • Private Sector Credit y/y, expected is 6.6%, prior was 6.7%
  • Private sector credit has been on the up reasonably strongly in Q3, 'business credit' especially strong. Expect these trends to continue with today's release and should act as a positive AUD input.

0200GMT - New Zealand - M# money supply for October, prior was +8.5%