Highlights of the EIA short-term oil outlook:
- Lowest 2015 US crude supply estimate by 1.2% to 9.36m bpd
- Lowers 2016 crude output forecast by 360K to 8.96m bpd
- Sees WTI averaging $49.62 in 2015 from $55.51
The production cut estimate is the most noteworthy headline. I'm looking for the details because I want to know if it's due to lower prices impacting production late in the year.
I wouldn't put much focus on the price forecasts, they're backward looking.
Update: The full report is finally up on the EIA website.
This paragraph really tells the story of collapsing oil prices:
"The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global oil inventories grew by an average of 2.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in June and July, sharply exceeding the 0.4 million b/d build during the same time last year and an average 0.3 million b/d build over the previous three- years (2012-14). The sizeable build in inventories occurred amid continued high production levels, with year-over-year growth averaging 3.3 million b/d for the two-month period. Global consumption also rose compared with last year, albeit by a much smaller volume of 1.1 million b/d on average, resulting in the large inventory build. Estimated inventories held by countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in June and July stood roughly 260 million barrels higher on average compared with the previous three years."