The euro has struggled in early 2014 in contrast to the previous three years where EUR/USD posted strong gains in January.
Euro strength surprised many analysts in December but it followed a similar seasonal pattern to previous years — over the past 10 years December has been the best month for the euro, on average. The trend in January is a bit more difficult to decipher. EUR/USD has averaged a 2.1% gain in January over the past three years but if we scale further out, the pattern breaks down. Over the past 10 years, there are 5 years of gains and 5 years of losses. On average, January is the second-worst month for the euro but that’s skewed by the whopping 8.29% loss in 2009.
EUR/USD seasonal heatmap
Unfortunately, the picture is also mixed for February but come May, be ready to sell.