• ECB’s Nowotny: Level of euro isn’t a major threat right now. It merits scrutiny but no immediate action
  • France’s Finance Minister Lagarde reiterates we all want a strong dollar. Europe’s recovery doesn’t justify further gains in euro
  • Japan PM Hatoyama: Does not think Japanese economy has turned around despite fall in Japan’s jobless rate in August. Worries unemployment will worsen into year end
  • Italian September services PMI 48.5, up from 46.4 in August, better than median forecast of 47.1 and highest read since September 2008
  • Euro zone final September services PMI revised up to 50.9 from flash 50.6, highest read since April 2008
  • UK September services PMI 55.3, up from 54.1 in August, better than median forecast of 54.5, highest read since September 2007
  • Euro zone Sentix index rises to -12.6 in October from -14.6 in September, in line with median forecast of -12.0, highest read since July 2008
  • Euro zone August retail sales -0.2% m/m, -2.6% y/y, slightly stronger than median forecasts of -0.4%, -2.6% respectively
  • French President Sarkozy: Large French bank to repay government aid this week, following BNP lead last week

When all said and done not a whole lot of net change this morning in what’s been a cautious start to the week.

EUR/USD sits at 1.4625 all but unchanged on the day. The pairing rallied early, bolstered by the fact the G7 did nothing concrete to address dollar weakness. ECB’s Nowotny’s comments (see above) were duly noted.

We got as high as 1.4655 where we topped out and it’s been a slow drift lower, which never looked like getting out of hand. Talk of sell orders lined up at 1.4660 up through 1.4700 will be inhibiting euro bulls a little.

Talk of 1.4600 and 1.4650 option expiries will also be helping curtail price action.

Cable at 1.5945 little lower on the day. An early rally took the pairing over 1.6000, but the stay there was short-lived. We’ve got another BOE meet this week and as usual they’ll be some caution ahead of that, although the bank is expected to keep things on hold. The fact that the BOE is likely to keep rates low for some time yet is one of the ongoing negatives for sterling.

Better than expected UK PMI services data (see above) lent some very marginal support for a while, but it didn’t last.

USD/JPY marginally firmer on the day, presently up at 89.93 from early 89.75, USD bulls so far struggling to chew through touted sell orders, including Japanese exporters, up at 89.90/00. Buy stops said to be gathering up at 90.10.