Quarter-end forecasts at 1.15 for 3Q20, 1.17 for 4Q20, and 1.19 for 1Q21 and 2Q21
Projections from UBS, citing:
- All forward-looking activity indicators lifted from June levels and the near-term jobs picture improved
- EURUSD rally will continue as lockdown measures are eased and global growth rebounds.
- The creation of an EU recovery fund should support the EUR.
- We see broad US dollar weakness given concerns about the expanding Fed balance sheet and rising US government debt.
Europe looks more stable than the US. Economic lockdowns have been eased with only a small rebound in COVID-19 infections so far. Crucial for the EU and the euro is the July 17/18 summit, featuring discussions on the EU recovery fund. We see a high chance of progress, which would lift the euro
