The price is testing the 38.2% of the trend move down at 1.2225. The 50% and the 100 hour MA come in at 1.2235/36 area. If the sellers keep firm control, this is where they should be happy to sell.
Remember as well that last week the range for the week was a weak 172 pips. There have only been 6 weeks going back to October 2007 with a more narrow trading range. The week is young but the range so far is 142 pips. If the range is going to be extended. If the market is going to follow up a narrrow range with a more normal range (the historical range after the 6 narrow weeks was 319 pips with a low of 194 pips and a high of 492 pips), there is room to roam. If the high is in place, the low would be the way to go. The low is 1.2174 this week so far.
The market can go whereever it wants of course. It takes sellers to overtake buyers to keep a trend going down. However, I would expect that the 100 hour MA and 50% would attract sellers, if the market players (i.e. the big traders) want the price to go down. If they don’t or if they are not committed, the price will move above and trading becomes a little more head scratching (1.2245 is the weeks midpoint). The big players trend the market. Are they ready to move this market?