With the ECOFIN leaders meeting in Brussels today and tomorrow, the EURUSD (and the entire currency market) is stuck in narrow non trending ranges. This despite continued rise in yields for Spanish and Italian debt. ECB Draghi is also scheduled to testify today (comments coming out currently).
The EURUSD low to high range is 62 pips in today. The price is up from Friday’s close at 1.2281. The low from June 1 (broken on Friday, was 1.2286). I am looking at this level to be the apex of the bullish/bearish seesaw today. Price stays above bullish. Price moves below bearish.
A move below 1.2281 has other support at the 1.2269, before the low at 1.22515 becomes the break point and door for further downside momentum. On a break of the low, 1.2207 is minor support. The next important downside support comes at the 1.2131 which is the 50% of the EURUSD all time range which extends from the October 2010 low of 0.8225 and the July 2008 high of 1.6037. Before that look for buyers as early at 1.2151 (with stops below the 1.2131 key level).
If 1.2281-86 holds, a correction toward and through the high would make sense with 1.2325 and the low from Thursday at 1.2363 would be next steps.
Overall, the bulls do have to prove they can take back some control from last weeks strong sellers. Holding the 1.2281-86 would be a small step. If that cannot be done, the bears remain in control. The buyers remain under pressure.