Traders want to believe happy days are here again but the seasonal distortions to the claims data are keeping them somewhat cautious. If we get strong Philly Fed data at 14:00 GMT, then we could see a break to the topside, but until then, traders remain unconvinced. We rallied to 1.4165 after the data but have eased to 1.4135, about where we were heading into the data.
We are hearing reports of a EUR 2 bln buy order executed by a US investment bank this morning, helping lift EUR/USD to its earlier 1.4153 highs. That order absorbed selling by both China and the BIS in the 1.4140/50 area. There were also reports that Japan scrambled jets to deal with North Korea violating Japanese airspace earlier today.
Next up is the monthly Treasury International Capital data (TIC) that shows cumulative fund flows into and out of the US. The data has not been market moving in recent months.