From Credit Suisse ‘FX Weekly Briefing’ for this week.
First, what are the CS technical analysis ‘core themes’ ? And then, a closer look at two technical analysis charts for EUR/USD:
GBP remains a core long.
• We continue to look for GBPUSD to stage a clear break above 1.7044/49, for 1.7332, then 1.8235.
• We maintain our .7800 target for EURGBP.
• EUR TWI has completed a top, and we favour being short EUR.
• EURUSD continues to threaten a large bear “wedge”. Below 1.3477/68 is needed to add weight to this scenario.
• AUDUSD above .9463 can confirm a bull “triangle” for .9584 – 38.2% of the entire 2011/2014 bear market.
• USD itself remains sideways below its medium-term downtrend.
• USDCHF needs to hold .8908 to maintain thoughts of a base.
• USDJPY stays sideways, despite equity market strength.
• We are bearish SEK.
• WTI Crude Oil is expected to test the top of its medium-term range.
• Gold holds an upside bias within the broader sideways range.
• US Duration Risk Appetite is approaching “euphoria”, where we have been looking for a turn in yields.
• US Inflation Expectations are beginning to rise.
• 30yr US needs to break above 3.50% to see a yield base. 10yr US needs to break 2.665%.
• Equity Risk Appetite maintains a “buy” signal.
• We stay bullish European periphery equities, and also selected EM.
• S&P 500 target remains 1980, and potentially 2010, but we expect strength to stall here.
And, a closer look at the EUR/USD:
From Credit Suisse Securities Research & Analystics