New lows in the EURUSD and a correction toward the 38.2% of the last move down keeps the bears in control (see chart above). The 38.2% comes in at the 1.23948 level, the 50% of the last leg comes in at 1.24045 now. We know the 1.2406 was the low from last week (see hourly chart below) . Common sense says stay below 1.12406 keeps the bears in control (and the longs worried/concerned). Move above and the market is a little more balanced at this price level (next key level 1.2438). For the time being, however, look for sellers against 1.2406 with profit taking potential on a move above.
The combination of better US employment statistics and the ECB easing/concerns in Euroland has led to the trend down in the EURUSD. Shorts remain in control. We do have the US employment tomorrow and although the ADP has been overstating the job growth of late and therefore may not be trusted, the likes of Goldman Sachs raising there estimate and fear that it may indeed be stronger, has led to the selling of the EURUSD (buying USD).
FYI, looking at the last 3 months, the ADP has overstated the Private Sector employment by 57K, 25K, and 54K. If the ADP is overstating by 50K, that would imply a Private Sector job gain of 126K. Goldman raised their estimate to 125K.