It’s a busy week on the US economic calendar with the ISM and jobs reports due from Tues-Fri but the focus today is on Chicago.
First up is the March Chicago PMI at 1445 GMT (9:45 am ET). The consensus is for a slip to 59.5 from 59.8.
March manufacturing data has been mixed so far. The Richmond Fed and Markit PMI were a touch soft but the Philly Fed was upbeat.
The main event on the calendar is 10 minutes later at the Hyatt in Chicago where Yellen delivers the keynote speech at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference. Fed members haven’t been in a rush to tone down the roughly 6 month timeline Yellen attached to “considerable time”. That rate hike timeline will be the focus but her overall tone on the economy will also be critical. She might have an inkling on how this week’s jobs numbers look, or at least the market believes she has some inside info.
If she’s upbeat look for USD/JPY to continue higher. Strong offers at 103.50 stand in the way at the moment but there are stops above.