Latest Reuters poll has most economists fixed on September

  • 35/55 are confident that the US economy is back on a sustainable path. 8 were "very confident"
  • 24/44 see meaningful and sustained wage increases could be expected in H2 2015
  • Sees US GDP at 2.5% in Q2 (2.7% prior), 3.0% in Q3 (unch), 2.3%. Average GDP for 2015 at 2.3% (2.5% prior)
  • Fed funds rate seen at 0.375% end of Q3, 0.625% end of Q4, 1.625% end of 2016

Whether you believe the economists or not it's the sentiment that we need to focus on. If these guys are favouring September then the prices will reflect that too. For the FOMC this week, only 2 out of 70 polled see a hike