First look at Q2 GDP the Friday focus

Tomorrow we get our first look at US GDP data for the second quarter of this year. Like any advance reading of GDP, it is subject to major revision, so take the data with a large pinch of salt. First quarter GDP was revised from about -6.5% in its first release to -5.5% by the time statisticians got done with it.

The range of estimates is between -2.5% and +0.5% with the consensus for a 1.0- 1.5% contraction in the economy.

A potential monkey wrench could be thrown into the works tomorrow as the government releases its benchmark revisions which update GDP data from prior years. What are the odds 2008 will be revised lower? I’d bet pretty good…