A close below the 100 day MA would be the first since August 2014
The weaker than expected NFP report today (see Infograph outlining the trends) has sent the USDJPY tumbling lower in holiday trading in the US. The price for the USDJPY has moved below the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below). That level comes in at 119.00. A close below this moving average , would represent the 1st time since August 8, 2014. This is now a risk defining level for the shorts.
The price is currently testing the 50% of the move up from the December 2014 low to the March 2015 high. That level comes in at 118.73. Below that level, look for 118.31 an 118.02. Honestly, looking at the daily chart broadly, if the USDJPY wants to correct (and it has the fundamental backdrop from the employment report to back it up), there is plenty of room. The pair has been waffling back and forth since December. The low since that time is 115.55. Can we go there on a correction over time? Sure.
I do not necessarily recommend whipping it around today, but shorts from above are in control and the 100 day MA does present a nice level to lean against for risk defining purposes. Having it at 1.1900 makes it even better.
PS If you want to set it and forget it. The midpoint of the days range is currently at 119.312. This is also near the midpoint of the move up from the March 26 low (see hourly chart below at 119.336). If there is another line in the sand for defining risk, that is the line. The price should not trade above that level if the bears are to remain in control.
