Back near unchanged on the day
The GBPUSD is getting a little pop in the last 30 minutes of trading. The pair is back near unchanged on the day, and also is testing the high prices from August 12 and August 14 at the 1.5659 level.
While the EURUSD moved back toward the days highs in the NY session, the GBPUSD has remained near the lows. Having said that the pair was not able to extend below the support against the 100 hour MA ( blue line in the chart above). The yellow horizontal channel represents a remembered area where there have been a number of swing highs and lows going back to mid-July.
As the market awaits the FOMC minutes, the 100 hour moving average on the downside becomes more important given a more hawkish Fed. A break below should solicit additional sellers with the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above) as the next logical target (currently comes in at 1.5597 - call it 1.5600). Yesterday, the price fell below this moving average line, but quickly rebounded and shot higher on the higher-than-expected UK CPI data.
If the Fed surprises with more dovish comments (I think it would be a surprise at least - remember the meeting was a few weeks ago before China, and lower oil), the 1.5670, 1.5687 and 1.5716 (high for August) will be eyed. In July, there were a series of highs at 1.5670-89 (see chart below).
By the way, the low in August made its way to 1.5424.
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