Forex news for US trading on July 15, 2015:

  • Bank of Canada lowers key rate to 0.50% from 0.75%
  • BOC cuts 2015 GDP forecast to 1.1% from 1.9%
  • Full statement from the Bank of Canada
  • Poloz: BOC still has many tools it could use; our expectation is that using them will be unnecessary
  • New Zealand Fonterra dairy prices -10.7% vs -5.9% prior
  • Yellen: If Fed waits longer for liftoff it may mean raising rates faster
  • Fed's Yellen: Sees favorable outlook for improvement in jobs, economy
  • Fed's Beige Book: Districts described growth as 'modest' and 'moderate'
  • June 2015 US PPI final demand 0.4% vs 0.2% exp m/m
  • June 2015 US industrial production +0.3% vs +0.2% exp m/m
  • July 2015 US Empire State manufacturing index 3.86 vs 3.00 exp
  • Germany wants collateral for €7bn EFSM loan
  • Greek vote due in two hours
  • No signs of slowdown in Canadian house prices, but sales fall
  • Obama treads carefully on Iran deal
  • EIA crude stocks -4.346m vs -1.158m exp
  • S&P 500 down 3 points to 2106
  • Gold down $6.50 to $1149, touches lowest since mid-March
  • US 10-year yields down 5 bps to 2.35%
  • WTI crude down $1.68 to $51.36
  • USD leads, NZD lags

The newsflow today was intense. Yellen didn't say anything particularly new but she reminded the USD bulls that the Fed is the only one tightening. That was underscored by a somewhat-surprising BOC cut and a shocking falling NZ dairy prices. Add in Iran, Greece, data and a few other tidbits and it was non-stop drama.

USD/CAD had a beautiful setup into the BOC as it was testing the 2015 high. It surged to 1.2920 from 1.2780 on the cut. It then consolidated for a few hours and rallied to a high of 1.2958 on oil softness. Poloz didn't promise any more cuts but they're definitely on the table.

The USD/CAD gain was stretched by broad USD gains. They started on Yellen's comments but there wasn't really anything new there. She generally repeated what she said a week earlier but this market is suddenly back in love with USD. We saw it yesterday as the dip was bought after retail sales.

The euro side to 1.0970 from 1.1000 on the data and then slowly drifted to 1.0930. The lows of the day came as the Molotov cocktails began to fly in Athens and Greece started to debate the austerity vote.

Cable dipped to 1.5580 from 1.5630 but nothing can hold the pound down and it climbed all the way back by the end of the day. There was lots of talk about BOE hikes today.

The New Zealand dollar was absolutely blindsided by a crash in dairy prices. They've been sinking for most of the past year and a 10% fall stoked talk about an RBNZ cut next week. NZD/USD is testing the 2010 low after three weeks of non-stop declines.

There was no way the Aussie could withstand the drops in its commodity cousins. It was in a near-constant fall to 0.7360 from 0.7460. Metals skidded again.