Forex news for US trading on June 29, 2015:

  • Greece will not pay the IMF Tuesday - Govt official
  • May 2015 US pending home sales 0.9% vs 1.2% exp m/m
  • Door not really open for Greece/Troika negotiations - report
  • China wants in on the EU infrastructure fund - Rtrs
  • ECB QE count: PSP rises €11.681bn to €193.9bn
  • BOC's Poloz says January rate cut was controversial
  • May 2015 Canadian PPI +0.5% vs +0.5% exp m/m
  • June 2015 German HICP flash 0.1% vs 0.4% exp y/y
  • Juncker: We were prepared to move mountains before Greece closed the door
  • June 2015 US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index -7.0 vs -16.0 exp
  • ECB's Knot says situation in Greece is worrying
  • S&P lowers Greek sovereign rating to CCC- from CCC
  • Gold up $4 to $1179
  • WTI crude down $1.47 to $58.16
  • S&P 500 down 43 points to 2057 -- erases gains for the year
  • US 10-year yields down 15 bps to 2.32%
  • JPY leads, CAD lags

We finally got answers for what would happen in markets if Greece walked away from the negotiating table. The massive surprise was the reversal in the euro. It was the ultimate pain trade as it opened down 200 and then slowly climbed back. The opening gap almost closed as EUR/USD rose to 1.1120 at the start of US trading. It was aided by intervention in EUR/CHF from the SNB. The gap finally closed in a squeeze a couple hours into US trading and the it was pure pain up to 1.1278 before a minor slide back to 1.1240.

Cable tried to follow along with the euro. From 1.5700 at the start of US trading, it climbed to 1.5785 in whippy trading, peaking at the London close. Afterwards, the euro and pound diverged. Cable began to slide and gave up most of its gains, finishing at 1.5730.

USD/JPY was a much more straightforward trade. In fact, all the yen crosses were under pressure in a pure, risk aversion trade. The opening gap for the week was down to 1.2260 from 123.80 and it looked to be closing in Asia when Chinese stocks were bouncing but they soon went south and it was back down to 1.2250. A second bounce in Europe to 122.90 was slowly beaten down to 122.50 as US stocks were routed. Interesting to note, however, that the three intraday lows today were all slightly higher than the previous one.

USD/CAD dipped to 1.2340 from 1.2370 in the first stretch of trading but it was short-lived. From there, declines in oil boosted the pair to 1.2410 but generalized US dollar losses capped the move in a chop back to 1.2365. Last at 1.2390.

AUD/USD was surprisingly strong, given the rout in China and stock markets. It shows that the old carry trade is basically dead. AUD/USD made a steady move to 0.7710 from 0.7550.

Here is what I wrote on Friday. "I would be vary wary of trading the euro on Greek headlines so here are three different ways to trade it" and detailed three (non-euro) trades ideas if there was no Greek deal, highlighting yen crosses, bonds and shorting Greek stocks.