Forex news for May 4, 2015, US Edition:

  • April 2015 US ISM New York PMI 58.1 vs 50.0 prior
  • ECB QE count: PSP total 95.056bn vs 85.009bn prior
  • March 2015 US factory orders 2.1% vs 2.0% exp m/m
  • US growth likely to fall long term - Moody's
  • Seasonal's are a big feature of Adam Button's repertoire. Watch him talk them over with FXStreet's Dale Pinkert
  • Fed's Evans: Repeats rate hike not likely appropriate until early 2016
  • US stocks end the day higher
  • Forex technical analysis: If USDCAD is an oil trade, it is at a key level
  • Forex technical analysis: Watching trend line support in the EURUSD
  • Gold up 1.05% to 1186.80
  • WTI Crude -0.17% to 58.98
  • S&P up 0.29% to 2114.49
  • US 10 year yield up 2 bps to 2.14%
  • CAD strongest. EUR weakest

It was the May Day holiday in the UK and with a light US calendar the market had a tough time gathering momentum going.

The EURUSD did end the day lower vs. the US dollar, continuing the downward momentum started on Friday after the pair got within 10 pips of the 100 day MA. The fall today took the pair to low of 1.1122 . The NY session high extended to 1.1189 - short of the close from Friday (at 1.1203 area). The lows for the session found support against another 100 bar MA - this one the 100 hour MA (currently at 1.1138). Moving below and staying below will be needed to solicit more selling in the new trading day.

Cable traders took the day off after Friday's rout too 2 cents off the pair. The pair positioned itself just below the 100 day MA (at the 1.5153 level). Election ahead. Illiquid conditions may persist going forward. As Adam pointed out in his session with Dale Pinkert, the UK will survive. So sit quietly and fade a move.

The best thing about the USDJPY today was that the new trading day will likely be better. A 28 pip low to high trading range was the lowest range going back to September 2014. So prepare for a break.

The RBA is the main event in the new trading day with the press saying it will be a 25 basis point cut on the back of expectations for lower cap ex, slumping iron ore prices (although higher lately), expectations that government will not be of help. . The economic data (i.e. employment and CPI) if anything was better. The AUDUSD stayed below the 100 day MA today at the 0.7857 level, but found support against the 0.7800 level. On a move below 0.7800 on a cut, the market will be looking for a move below 0.7740 and 0.7719 to signal more bearish potential.

The USDCAD retraced the gains from Friday and moved toward the 100 hour MA at 1.2078 level. The 200 hour MA at 1.2116 capped the upside in the North American session..Oil prices were down on the day, but remains close to the key $60 per barrel level.

Good fortune with your trading..