Forex news for August 31, 2015:

  • Aug Chicago PMI 54.4 vs 54.5 expected
  • Canada Q2 current account balance -17.4B vs -16.9B expected
  • Dallas Fed manufacturing index -15.8 vs -4.6 prior
  • FX volatility could hurt global growth more than anticipated, FT warns
  • ISM Milwaukee 47.67 vs 47.12 prior
  • Fed hike odds creep to 40% in Sept
  • OPEC stands ready to talk to other producers about market - OPEC publication
  • Cheap gas only leads to small rise in US projected Labor Day travel
  • WTI crude up $3.29, or 7.3%, to $48.53
  • Gold up $2.70 to $1136
  • US 10-year yields up 4 bps to 2.95%
  • S&P 500 down 6.3% on the month
  • JPY leads, NZD lags

The big story was the early drop in oil prices followed by a massive turnaround. It's the third consecutive day of major oil gains. After hitting a session low of $43.63, crude began to drift higher and then shot as high as $49.33. Various headlines were blamed but it was all about global growth and an epic squeeze.

USD/CAD followed oil's lead. It hit a session high of 1.3327 early but reversed to finish at 1.3155, forming a bearish outside candle on the daily chart. The BOC decision is next week and the recovery in oil and market sentiment will make them think twice about cutting rates.

The first central bank on the agenda is later today when the RBA meets. None of the 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg sees a cut so we'll be focused on commentary regarding China, global growth and commodities. Many market participants are looking for a cut around November. Today, AUD fell as low as 0.7082 -- a three day low. It rebounded to 0.7117 but it's still the second-lowest close of the cycle.

The euro was jarred by month-end flows. It fell as low as 1.1180 in a quick move down from 1.1240 but a selloff in bunds provided support and it completely recovered. Still, it wasn't able to make fresh highs and there was some selling at 1.1240. Last at 1.1222.

With the UK on holiday, cable trading was thinned and market participants used that to push the pair lower to 1.5346 in the fifth consecutive day of declines. However, Friday's low of 1.5333 held.

USD/JPY ranged from 121.08 to 121.42. It wasn't particularly in synch with sentiment or the US dollar and that's probably owing to month end.

Here are the FX returns for the month of August.