Forex trading news and economic data 29 July 2015

The FOMC

  • July 2015 US FOMC meeting: Rate to rise after further job market gains
  • Full FOMC statement from the July 2015 monetary policy meeting
  • Fed gives a jobs clue that a rate rise is getting closer
  • Futures remain unconvinced about September Fed hikes

The data

  • June 2015 US pending home sales -1.8% vs 1.0% exp m/m
  • US EIA crude oil inventories -4.203m vs -1.88m exp

The news

  • US Treasury Sec Lew says China shouldn't take too long restructuring economy
  • Canada conference board cuts 2015 GDP forecast
  • IMF's Lagarde is upbeat on Europe but tepid on the rest of the world
  • You'll have to wait a bit longer for your Greek stock market trading fix
  • USDCAD spills below 1.2900 - Is that another big failure at 1.3000?

FOMC day and we saw the dollar making it's usual pre-FOMC run higher. Nothing to write home about but we hovered just under 124.00 in USDJPY. Late nerves or squaring up saw us dip to around 123.70 just ahead of the announcement and then we pinged to 123.50 and then 124.00 as the headlines hit. The market tried to pick the bones out of the statement but it was like trying to find something after the vultures had been there. There wasn't much in it at all, and certainly no hints to the possible date of hikes. We went back into the range although a late dollar rally in the euro has kept the pair knocking on 124.00

GBPUSD got all excited through the session running up on not a lot at all to 1.5690. Profit taking and an end of month London fix put pay to that move and with the upcoming FOMC added in we took a dive to 1.5615. Reaction was fairly muted over the Fed with just a 50 pip wobble between 1.5600 and 1.5650. Late in the day we see 1.5600 broken but 1.5590 support holding

EURUSD kept itself fairly tight but had some moves in between 1.1070 and 1.1030 the fix also saw it dragged down to 1.1010 before running back up to 1.1050 just before the Fed. The reactionary move sent us to the day's top at 1.1084 and then down to 5 pips shy of 1.1000. Someone saw something more hawkish than anyone else from the Fed and a muted dollar bid elsewhere was more magnified in the euro and we broke through 1.10 to support at 1.1067. USDJPY holding below 124.00 maybe keeping the euro afloat but the bounce so far has been limited to 1.0990

USDCAD got sucked into the moves in oil today and broke through 1.2900 to a low of 1.2862. Oil rallied on the inventory data nearly $2 but has since fallen back and the CAD has reacted accordingly by pushing back up to 1.2944

On the whole the Fed said not a lot, apart from the comment on jobs, and if we have a good NFP in August then the market will be circling that Sep FOMC date