Forex headlines for July 11, 2014:
- Canadian June employment -9.4K vs +20.0K expected
- Canada unemployment rate 7.1% vs 7.0% expected
- RBA’s Stevens sees “material” fall in AUD “at some point”
- Fed’s Lockhart says it’s too early to make a call on interest rates
- Lockhart: Weak wage growth a sign of slack and tame inflation
- Fed’s Plosser says Fed should raise rates before reaching its goals
- Plosser: Fed closer to rate increase than many think
- US June monthly budget statement +$70.5B vs +$79B expected
- S&P affirms Germany’s sovereign rating with a stable outlook
- Mediocre earnings from Wells Fargo
- US Fed’s Evans sees pressures in holding down inflation
- Fed’s Evans says it’s not a catastrophe to overshoot 2% inflation target
- A handful of trading recommendations
- Bond dealers see Fed hiking cycle topping at 3.50%
- S&P 500 up 3 points to 1968, down 0.9% on the week
- Gold up $2 to $1338
- WTI crude down $2.26 to $100.67
- CHF leads on the day, CAD lags
Friday was all about the Canadian dollar. The loonie has been the star for a few months but more than a few analysts noted that the fall from 1.12 to 1.06 had come too quickly. A retracement might be underway as USD/CAD shot 100 pips higher to 1.0732 after the jobs report. The initial move stalled ahead of offers at 1.0700 but once that broke it was a slow grind higher and we close near the highs.
Broader trades were dictated by stocks. The euro was surprisingly quiet in a 1.3590 to 1.3610 range despite a wild day in periphery stocks and the Portuguese bond market. Traders will look for some clarity over the weekend. EUR/USD finishes near the highs of US trading at 1.3609.
Cable took a step back but the bidders were waiting just below 1.71 and picked it up. Last at 1.7120. It’s been an indecisive week as the pound consolidates above 1.71.
USD/JPY was a dull trade and was in a 12-pip range for the entirety of US trading from 101.27-39. US 10-year yields were 2 basis points lower as the shorts continue to take a slap to the face (big or small) virtually every day. They’ll pray to the voodoo bond gods that Yellen throws them a lifeline next week.
AUD/USD started US trading just above 0.9400 and ends a few pips below. The stall and fall in the risk trade hurt but not for long.
The other big mover on the day was crude oil. The support from Thursday gave way in a dramatic fall down to 100.61. Rough week for the oil bulls and they’re in big trouble if $100 doesn’t hold, the 200-dma is also nearby at $99.94.
Have a great weekend!