Forex headlines for October 29, 2013:
- US retail sales Sept -0.1% vs 0.1% expected
- Retail sales control group +0.5% vs 0.4% exp
- ECB’s Nowotny: No realistic prospect of refi or deposit rate cut
- US October consumer confidence 71.2 vs 75.0 expected
- US Case-Shiller house price index +12.82% y/y vs 12.5% exp
- US Aug business inventories +0.3% vs +0.3% exp
- Carney says BOE won’t tighten until ‘real trajectory’ in recovery
- Bank of Canada continues to see good reasons to believe foreign demand will pick up
- Italian economy is set for recovery says Italy’s Saccomanni
- Blackrock chairman pleas for the Fed to taper
- Obama said to choose Powell for second term as Fed Governor
- The latest from Hilsenrath
- Another record close for the S&P 500
- Gold down $8 to $1345
- WTI oil down 42-cents to $98.27
- S&P 500 up 0.6% to 1772
- USD leads, AUD lags
Lots of data today but it was a comment from Nowotny and positioning ahead of the Fed that drove trading.
EUR/USD was wallowing near 1.3760 at the lows of the day when Nowotny came out against rate cuts and said the high euro is a fact of life. The euro sprinted to 1.3810 but the sellers were waiting a dumped the euro all the way to 1.3737. One factor that helped was Nowotny talking about liquidity, likely tipping his hat on an LTRO next year.
The broader theme was US dollar strength. USD/JPY climbed to 98.00 from 97.50 in European trading. It stalled for a time at the big figure but caught a second wind to 98.28. Offers at at 98.34/37 with more at 98.50 and stops above.
US dollar strength was particularly visible in cable and AUD/USD — two pairs that have benefited most from the PrintFinity trade lately. Traders have been looking to square up ahead of the Fed tomorrow and some jawboning in AUD/USD and soft lending data in the UK was the excuse the market needed.
Both pairs have drifted into the bottom pickers’ territory but a large 0.9500 AUD/USD option tomorrow and technical support in cable gave the bulls reason for optimism.