Forex news for Asia trading on Tuesday 14th September 2021
- More from RBA Governor Lowe says likely to stop QE bond buying in 2022
- US Gulf - Nicholas upgraded to Hurricane, landfall in Texas expected Monday night
- RBA Governor Lowe says Delta outbreak has delayed, not derailed economic recovery
- Goldman Sachs expect broad USD weakness over there rest of 2021
- US August inflation data is due today, Tuesday 14 September 2021 at 1230 GMT
- Australian Q2 house price index +6.7% q/q and +16.8% y/y
- Australia Business confidence -5 (prior -8) and Conditions 14 (prior 11)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.4500 (vs. estimate at 6.4490)
- Australian state of NSW has the lowest number of new local COVID-19 cases for nearly 2 weeks
- China reports 59 local transmitted COVID-19 cases in Fujian province
- TD on gold - see the USD holding it back
- China's Evergrande rings further warning bells - expects sales to fall this month
- Australian weekly consumer sentiment 103.1 (prior week 100.0)
- Recap of the Japan Q3 Business Sentiment survey
- The US and South Korea spoke on the semiconductor shortage
- Earthquake Magnitude 6.1 felt in Tokyo, Japan
- Oil - US Gulf copping it again, this time Tropical Storm Nicholas
- The CHF really ran (lower) with the weekend Swiss National Bank comments ....
- Australian casino behemoth Crown to introduce vaccine mandate for staff, clients
- Norway PM has conceded election defeat
- US Senate Republicans threaten to block nominations to Treasury
- South Korea export and import prices, both surging
- New Zealand house prices in August +27.5% y/y and +2.5% m/m
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 14 September 2021
- Leaders of Australia, India, Japan to meet with Biden at the White House - 'Quad' summit
With US oil still struggling to recover from the damage done by Hurricane Ida, Tropical Storm Nicholas has been upgraded (just prior to me posting this wrap) to Hurricane Nicholas. Its expected to make landfall on the Texas coast imminently. Oil has inched a little higher on the session here in Asia but not by much.
Data flow today was focused on Australian business confidence and conditions (for August) via the National Australia Bank survey. The survey showed an improvement from a poor set of results in July. Not a lot of improvement but at least some (see bullets above).
Also from Australia today, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe gave a speech. Lowe was blunt on the cash rate ahead, he:
- reiterated that the cash rate is unlikely to rise before 2024 given sluggish wage growth
and said
- its "difficult to understand" why markets are pricing in hikes for 2022 and 2023
This is not new from Lowe, but it is blunter and more forthright than usual. If he was a politician he might have said "read my lips" ... and maybe he'd be telling the truth! There is more from Lowe in the posts on his speech and the following Q&A in the bullets above.
FX
movement was subdued, even AUD did not do too much despite the data
and Lowe. It topped out just above 0.7370 and is currently circa
0.7356 0.7350 (dropping a little more as I proof-read).
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY are all up a few tics with not much news flow at all. NZD/USD is net a few tics down on the day. EUR/JPY gained.
Regional equities: Japan's Nikkei rose again while China's Shanghai Composite and HK's Hang Seng are barely net changed.
As I slot in the AUD chart its dribbling lower after Lowe's speech and comments:
