Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Thursday 15 March 2018

Noob comments

Today's crypto:

I love a buffet, all you can eat preferably.. Get your fill on these choices for reasons behind the USD/JPY fall today (these the ones I have seen in response to the fall today):

  • Pete Navarro, US National Trade Council Director said the next thing ... is to deal with... China stealing our technology (indigestion alert - Navarro was preempted by Kudolow by about 5 hours saying pretty much the same thing)
  • Japan has been able to weaken the JPY to stimulate domestic demand, at the G20 meeting the US is likely to want this to end and to demand so.
  • The Nikkei was lower so the yen was bought (dunno about which is the tail and which is the dog TBH)
  • Macro focused funds sold it (well, someone did, right?)
  • Fast money sold it (ditto)
  • UST's bought (yields lower), (an early block of 6600 bought ... and then more followed .... high volumes in the futures for the session here)
  • Sold on global trade tensions
  • Sold on Trump generally, more specifically - more staff changes, McMaster (National Security Advisor) said to be next on the chopping block
  • Crypto sell off (BTC lower overnight and again in early Asia) indicates a risk off concern, and thus a yen benefit

FWIW I'm going with the UST explanation, but elements of the others may well be helpful, in moderation, K? (Oh, and I am often wrong)

USD/JPY was sitting just above 106.30 in very early Tokyo but sold off into the morning. It was above 106.00 at the Tokyo fix but plopped under the figure following, stopping its decline ahead of 105.80 and has recovered a few points as I update. Other currencies didn't have too much movement (I'll come back to the NZ dollar in a moment), which has resulted in yen crosses weaker alongside the USD/yen decline. As I update the Nikkei has recovered much (not all) of its morning slide, let's see how USD/JPY fares.

The NZD was marked down on publication of the Q4 GDP data today. The result missed estimates. NZD/USD dropped to under 0.7310 and has since edged back to above its data release level. Q4 GDP data is a bit old hat by now, we pretty much know the NZ economy hit a small rough patch (losing some momentum but still growing) in the period following the election, but early 2018 indications are for a bounce back. That's not a view shared by all, though.

In brief from ANZ's response:

  • figures paint a picture of an economy growing close to trend, and it is a pace we more-or-less see continuing over the coming year or so

Contrasts with Westpac:

  • pace of economic growth has slowed over the last year. We expect it to remain subdued in the near term, with poor dairying conditions, growth constraints in the building industry, and the uncertain impact of the new Government's policies.

USD/CHF is barely changed ahead of the Swiss National Bank meeting today .... previews:

EUR/USD has gained a few tics, not much in it (nothing EUR specific fresh during the time zone here), cable too slightly higher (very slightly).

Gold is up a wee bit, USD/CAD barely changed.

Bitcoin continued its slide in early Asia but has managed to steady just a little as I update

Still to come: