Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 16 February 2016

  • China trade - fresh concern trade invoices being manipulated to get capital out
  • Bloomberg on China surging loans
  • Heads up for NZD traders, dairy auction coming up during London time
  • NZ 2-year inflation expectations fall to lowest since 1994
  • China new loans, aggregate financing data etc. out now
  • Bloomberg: Japanese investors are hunting for yield in Australia
  • PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.5130
  • PBOC open market operations today: Injects 30bn yuan today
  • BOJ's Kuroda: BOJ aims to lower yield curve with negative rates
  • RBA February meeting Minutes: Markets uncertain on Beijing
  • Australian PM Turnbull confirms won't be increasing GST
  • USD/JPY - comments from Aso, Ishihara
  • Goldman Sachs recommend selling gold, 3-month target is USD1100
  • Comments from NZ Finance Minster English
  • EUR/USD - I reckon this is nothing, but it really could be something nasty
  • Australia data - Weekly consumer sentiment: 113.6 (vs. 111.4 prior)
  • NZ PM Key says he is surprised the NZD has not dropped with lower dairy prices
  • NZ data - Retail Sales excl inflation (Q4 2015): 1.2% q/q (expected 1.5%)
  • Trade ideas thread for Tuesday 16 February 2016

It was continuation day in Asia again today, with higher yen crosses, AUD and regional stock markets, while Kiwi spoiled the show with a decent fall.

NZD dropped a little early on the back of comments from PM Key (he expressed surprise the NZD hadn't fallen further with the recent renewed declines in dairy prices). It soon reversed, though, making a fresh high for the session above 0.6670 before wobbling a bit and then plunging.

The fall coincided with 2-year inflation expectations data from the RBNZ and was quickly attributed to the (admittedly) low result (its lowest since 1994). Whatever it was, it was sharp, NZD dropping 50-odd points from the highs, consolidating somewhat and is making new lows as I update. NZD crosses came under pressure, of course.

Meanwhile, AUD traded a similar early pattern, with a little dip before a gain, getting above 0.7170. It hasn't lost much since then, 0.7160/70 pretty much the range since.

The PBOC USD/CNY mid-point setting came in little changed, a slight decline for the yuan, while the bank injected funds into the money market again today.

We (finally) got the new loans / aggregate financing data today ... and just wow ... a huge jump in both, well exceeding expectations. New lending jumped to its biggest monthly increase since January of 2004, which was when records for this began. Its not unusual to get loans front-loaded early in the year, but highest in 12 years ... yeah thats not usual.A huge jump too for aggregate / social financing, an even broader measure of financing growth.

Chinese stocks had a big up session, as did Japanese.

Gold fell again during the session, down under 1200 and on its lows as I update.

EUR/USD ticked higher early, putting on 20 or so points before giving it all back. USD/CHF was similar, CHF gaining early only to turn it all around.

USD/JPY was a star performer, it dipped early toward 114.40 and is now back to a new session high above 114.80.

Cable - is this thing on?

Oil jumped on talk (again) of producer meetings.

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei +1.99%
  • Shanghai +2.83%
  • HK +1.64%
  • ASX +0.86%

Still to come:

  • Heads up for NZD traders, dairy auction coming up during London time
  • EUR/USD - I reckon this is nothing, but it really could be something nasty