Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Monday 3 December 2018
- More on the discrepancies between the US and China statements on their agreement
- BlackRock warns investors to protect against recession - warn of late cycle economy
- More from ANZ on the Xi - Trump agreement - 'this buys time', but 'remain cautious'
- Goldman Sachs on China - US agreement, commodity prices
- CAD is having a great opening to the week - oil news not doing it any harm today
- Four developments that may see the FOMC put rate hikes on hold
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI up a touch in November, to 50.2 (vs. expected 50.1)
- Morgan Stanley outlook for the Fed - to lower dot forecast
- Australian fund manager is seeing a 'perfect storm' for housing market
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9431 (vs. Friday at 6.9357)
- Canadian Province of Alberta orders 8.7% cut in crude oil production
- Japan Nikkei / Markit Manufacturing PMI (November)comes in at 52.2
- Australia Q3 inventories 0.0% (expected +0.4%)
- Australia October building approvals -1.5% m/m (expected -1.5%)
- UK manufacturing trade association cuts forecast for 2019
- Weekend oil news - Russia, Saudi Arabia agree to extend their oil (OPEC+) deal
- Australia monthly private sector survey of inflation: 0.0% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- Japan Capex data for Q3. Headline Capital Spending 4.5% y/y (expected +8.5%)
- Deutsche Bank chief says its not at risk of a takeover
- ForexLive classifieds: FOR SALE, 7.8 billion euros of bad Italian loans
- Weekend - Trump to notify Congress in he will terminate NAFTA
- Weekend - Head of the WTO says global free trade is facing its worst crisis since 1947
- Australia Core Logic house prices for November: -0.9% m/m (prior -0.6%)
- MXN joining the rally, higher on China news but also positive bond news (airport)
- GBP the first 'gap' to fill - sad weekend Brexit headlines again
- Australia CBA / Markit Nov. manufacturing PMI: 54.6 (prior 54.5)
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 3 December 2018
- New Zealand terms of trade for Q3: -0.3% q/q (expected 0.0%)
- Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index (Nov) 51.3 (prior 58.3)
- Some early bank responses to the Xi - Trump trade war 'cease fire'
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices, 3 December 2018
- Early indications show big rally in risk trades
- US and China agree to ceasefire in trade war but statements differ
- Italy and EU studying options for a budget deal
- Putin says agreed to extend OPEC+ agreement
- G20 draft statement commits to reform of WTO
We had pops higher nearly across the board for currencies in very early Asia trade following news of a China - US trade war hiatus, a 'cease fire'. Trump and Xi announced a 90 day period where there would be no escalation in tariffs while the thorny issues such as:
- forced technology transfer
- intellectual property protection
- non-tariff barriers
- cyber intrusions and cyber theft
- Services
- agriculture
are resolved. Sounds like a mammoth task for just 90 days. Sceptics might be proved correct.
But, hey, for the opening in Asia it was 'risk on' with yen lower while AUD, NZD, EUR, CAD and GBP gained. It was a higher yen cross extravaganza..
GBP soon lost it lustre, though, on the usual weekend array of sad Brexit headlines, filling its gap. After this it managed to trade steadily back up toward its earlier high, a good performance from cable after the opening volatility.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY slipped; it took a good few hours but by midday Tokyo it had more or less filled in its gap. As I update its down a little more.
CAD had a great session, helped along not only by the trade news but also oil prices getting a strong tailwind here in Asia. Over the weekend Russia and Saudi announced they'd cooperate further on oil production into next year. This set the stage for potential production cuts at the upcoming OPEC meeting (December 6). The Canadian province of Alberta announced it was cutting oil production.
EUR, AUD, NZD all traded better against the USD today. All had opeing higher gaps and some sort of retracement but as I post all are grinding it higher again, approaching the earlier morning high. Gold is getting a decent bid today, up a few dollars for the session. Oil has surged.
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Its worth checking through the China - US posts. The description of the deal differs depending on if you read the US or the China statement.
Still to come: