Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Tuesday 4 September 2018
- An AUD forecast ahead of the RBA meeting today
- Reuters poll - expected probability of a disorderly Brexit still at 25%
- Australia Balance of Payment Current Account Balance: AUD -13.5bn (expected AUD -11bn)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8183 (vs. yesterday at 6.8347)
- BOJ buys more JGBs today than at prior operation
- UK press reports the budget is expected to be announced as early as October
- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer sentiment: 117.7 (prior 116.5)
- UK data - BRC like for like retail sales +0.2% y/y (prior +0.5%)
- EUR/USD technical analysis chart (and trade recommendation)
- EUR "Cautious optimism … Italy remains a wildcard" … (EUR forecasts)
- "... the end of summer. The major themes remain" (here's what they are & what to do)
- Goldman Sachs on Brexit, EUR/GBP forecast & where they look to short it
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 4 September 2018
- Morgan Stanley trade of the week is short CAD against yen
Asia entered today after a long weekend for North American traders. As the Tokyo morning got underway a little yen cross selling became evident, most notably against the usual AUD and NZD suspects but also seeing CAD sellers. EUR and GBP saw a few tics lopped off but were not the notable losers. USD/JPY, meanwhile, dipped under 110.95.
USD strength then fed into forex, seeing further losses for the AUD most especially but also a softer tone again for the others. NZD/USD was an exception, although it is a touch lower for the session its not by much. Cable too is little changed. USD/CHF is higher. USD/JPY reversed its earlier loss completely and is near its session high as I post circa 111.12.
The Bank of Japan boosted their buys of JGBs today, but there is a catch - the Bank will be conducting buying operations on fewer days this month. Net for September the Bank is expected to buy fewer JGBs.
Data today from Australia was not too far from expectations, with a focus on net export numbers for Q2 as a feed into tomorrow's Q2 GDP data. The partials so far have been showing a circa 0.7% q/q result, but of course there are uncertainties still (consumption a bit of a wildcard in the mix). The data point is due Wednesday at 0130GMT.
Ahead still is the RBA decision for September, unanimously expected to be on hold. Previews below.
Still to come:
- UK press on mounting speculation Carney could extend his stay as BoE governor
- Carney - will he stay or he will go? But what else to expect from the BoE today?
- NZD traders - heads up for the dairy auction due today (Tuesday, London time)
- Heads up for options expiries due on Tuesday 4 September 2018
- The risk for the AUD today is related to the risk for the RBA
- Preview of the RBA September monetary policy announcement and statement
- Where to for the AUD today - trading the RBA
- RBA meet Tuesday - preview for what is an assured result
- AUD traders - RBA September meeting is Tuesday - preview
- AUD traders - its not all about the RBA meeting - Gov. Lowe will be speaking later