Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 7 April 2015

  • GBP - JP Morgan says hold the USD against GBP
  • Forex technical trading: Key levels through the RBA interest rate decision
  • Australia - February retail sales: +0.7%m/m (+0.4% expected)
  • Australia - ANZ Job ads: -1.4% m/m (prior +0.9%)
  • USD/JPY - More Bank of Japan easing coming says JP Morgan .... just not yet
  • Forex education: Sideways breakout trading. Some of the fastest money in the FX market.
  • Japan - revised data shows wage growth much weaker than previously reported
  • Buy USD/CHF, EUR/CHF - Morgan Stanley expect SNB to intervene if rapid CHF appreciation
  • Barclays on the Iran deal last week - a risk of further delays
  • Australia - AiG services PMI for March: 50.2 (prior was 51.7)
  • Fed's Lockhart: Favors July or September rate liftoff instead of June
  • NZ house sales in March at new record high says big real estate agent
  • New Zealand PM Key on radio earlier: NZD high exchange rate - little RBNZ or govt. can do
  • Goldman Sachs sees 'modest upside risk' to oil prices over the next 3 months
  • "UK Treasury urges BoE to consider time stamps for forex trades"
  • "Greece would be taking a stupendous gamble by missing its IMF payments"

Currencies were generally range-bound ahead of the RBA decision due today ... except for those most in question - the AUD and NZD.

EUR/USD gained a little on the session, running out of steam above 1.0955 and pulling back to mid-range around 1.0940.

Cable followed a very similar pattern, up to test near 1.4910 before giving back 15 or so points to be around the figure as I update.

USD/CHF, a similar pattern too.

USD/JPY ran sideways barely off overnight highs through the session. Its looking likely to pop higher again in Europe (as of writing).

Oil - sideways, gold lost a few bucks.

There was little in the way of fresh news to drive moves today.

Turning to the AUD and NZD .... its usual for these to be reasonably subdued ahead of an RBA announcement .... but not so much today. AUD and NZD both lost ground against the USD in the earlier part of the day. AUD/NZD stabilised heading into today's major data release (so far) of February retail sales. These came in strong on a m/m basis, well exceeding consensus expectations, which saw a jump in the AUD to a session high of around 0.7623 - there were short stops to be covered above 0.7600 helping drive the jump. It back to just above the figure as i update.

NZD/USD, on the other hand ticked lower to under 0.7550. It has subsequently stabilised now, sideways in a tight range around 0.7530.

Still to come .... the RBA announcement (to cut or not to cut) is due at 0430GMT:

  • UBS (preview) on the RBA meeting Tuesday, & implications for the AUD

  • Forex technical analysis: EURAUD risk high as RBA decision awaited

  • Barclays looking for RBA rate cut in April

  • JP Morgan economist sticks his neck out .... no RBA cut in April

  • What To Expect From RBA? - Goldman Sachs and 11 other banks weigh in

  • Australian dollar shorts covering ahead of RBA

  • Poll time! Here's who is predicting an RBA cut today, and who isn't ... What do you say?

  • BMO puts the chance of an RBA rate cut at 50%