Forex news for Asia trading Monday 7 September 2015

Monday:

  • Japan Prime Minister Abe: Economic policies have swept away deflationary sentiment
  • More on USD (specifically USD/JPY) positioning
  • Barclays on 3 central bank meetings coming up this week, & their trade of the week.
  • The skill / luck spectrum ... and moving up the skill scale
  • China revises 2014 GDP growth to 7.3% from 7.4%
  • Nikkei, US/Yen in big turnarounds - both higher
  • Australia - ANZ job advertisements for August: +1.0% m/m (prior -0.4%)
  • Yuan reference rate for today set by the PBOC at 6.3584
  • China NDRC says economy improving, stabilizing; power use up, exports to improve
  • Gold price lower to start Asian Monday trade - 'safe haven' status tarnished?
  • FT reports that the UK PM has told business to 'shut up' over Brexit poll
  • China stock market regulator says will continue to use means to keep mkt stable
  • Australia: AiG Construction PMI, for August: 53.8 (prior was 47.1)
  • UK manufacturers' association cuts its output forecast in half
  • China Securities Journal: GDP growth may bottom out in Q3
  • Welcome to Monday ... one door closes, another opens (or, something like that)
  • China stock market - is it going to play out like 1990s Japan, or 1960s Japan?
  • Trade ideas thread to start us off for the week - Monday 7 September 2015
  • Saudi central bank governor Fahad Al Mubarak - will stick with currency peg
  • China stock markets - Bearish China shares ETF shows huge short bets
  • Early heads up for NZD traders - RBNZ this week ... Everyone expects a cut!
  • PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan says "correction in the stock market is almost done"
  • Saudi finmin says to cut spending, delay state projects in wake of lower oil price
  • Head of the German trade association expects Germany will set another export record this year

Weekend:

  • AUD/JPY is one for the technical analysis textbooks
  • Weekend gardening news ... The ECB has planted a magic money tree. Yes, really.
  • German Fin Min Schaeuble says no need for nervousness over slower China growth
  • Weekend G20 finance ministers' meeting - Update
  • China weekend news - policies under the microscope at the G20 meeting
  • Japan govt sources say some food, drinks may be exempted from sales tax hike
  • What were the best performing currencies last week?
  • Tricking the market ... how to do it ... and how spoofers are caught
  • There are a bunch of balls in the air in the forex market

G20 Communique news out over the weekend, with some strong words on competitive currency depreciations/devaluations. but they're always waffling on with that sort of stuff. Assurances to the G20 from China on reform, yuan and stock market stabilisation were also in the news headlines. Not unexpectedly.

What we were all waiting on, though, was the reopening of the Chinese stock markets after a 4 day long weekend break. And the PBOC yuan fix.

On the latter, we got a slight strengthening of the central reference rate today in the minutes leading up the stock market openings. Movement in the pre market was volatile, and stocks did dip at the open, but the comments from China at the G20 proved prescient (or a guide to intervention policy, take your pick) with a strong surge bringing indices back into positive territory for the session. The Shanghai Composite is positive at the lunch break.

How long it can last remains to be seen. the background picture is still of many stock under suspension with a large overhang of sellers waiting.

Currencies were active.

USD/JPY opened a little weak on the morning and dipped as the Nikkei was sold on the market open in Tokyo. The Nikkei came roaring back, though (at one stage it was down more than 1.5% for the day) and it too is positive as I update. USD/JPY had an 80-odd point range is in close to session highs as I write. You can expect USD/JPY to continue to swing on changes in equity sentiment.

EUR/USD was more subdued, its little changed on the day after a 40 or so point range. EUR/JPY has, of course, gained. Cable is a little higher, while the CHF is little net changed.

AUD, too, is little changed on the session, thouhg it has the smell of awaiting fressh sellers to hit it soon. With the US on holidat today we may be waiting a little longer, though. NZD/USD has been offered all day and is on its lows as i update. Expectations are for an RBNZ rate cut this week, and it would seem that given its so widely expected the market is short ... and yet here we are on the day's low.

Gold was heavy early but is little net changed as I update. Oil, also heavy early but now little changed on the session.