Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 04 August 2015

Australia & New Zealand ahead of the RBA meeting:

  • AUD higher after much better than expected retail sales data
  • Australia - Retail Sales for June: +0.7% m/m (vs. expected +0.4%)
  • Australia June Trade Balance: -2933m (vs. expected -3000m)
  • New Zealand data - ANZ Commodity Price Index for July -11.2% (prior -3.1%)
  • NZ house price rises - fastest since 2007
  • 1.8bn NZD sold against AUD
  • Australia - ANZ Roy Morgan weekly Consumer Sentiment: 112.9 (prior was 112.5)
  • Australia - Japanese investors "more downbeat on Australia than I've ever experienced"
  • Moody's on Australia: Banking system stable despite challenging operating envmt.
  • Moody's comments on NZ: Weaker eco growth, banking system stable

And ...

  • IMF says Russia's economy faces further losses if sanctions remain
  • BOJ's Iwata: Possible FX markets have fully priced in rate hikes by other central banks
  • Japan data - Labor Cash Earnings for June: -2.4%y/y (vs. expected +0.9%)
  • China's stock exchanges tighten short-selling rules further
  • Blackrock sees at least two signs pointing to higher volatility ahead for stocks
  • Japan data - July monetary base +32.8% y/y (prior +34.2%)
  • Shanghai Securities News: China should cut RRR on liquidity conditions
  • Japan press late Monday - "Japan's economy shrank 0.1% in June"
  • China stockmarket - to double by the end of 2016?
  • Trade ideas thread for Tuesday 4 August 2015

AUD and NZD were active in late New York/early New Zealand trade today, with talk of 1.8bn NZD sold against the AUD. AUD/NZD had a good-sized gain during this time. NZD/USD then drifted more or less sideways, while the AUD/USD retraced much of its early gain. Much better than expected retail sales data from Australia lit a fire back under the AUD, it jumped from around 0.7270 to 0.7295 (OK, not a big fire) before settling sideways again.

EUR had a tumble as HK and Singapore entered into the Asian markets today, with EUR/USD down from above 1.0950 toward 1.0930 and EUR/JPY off a similar point amount. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY recovered much of the early losses, though.

Small USD/JPY gains on the session, back above 124 again. The Labor Cash Earnings data (see bullets, above) was ... well... dreadful, and must raise doubts about Japan's exit from deflation.

Cable gained a little on the session, as of writing, after an earlier small dip. CHF was a little weaker also.

Oil and gold traded in a subdued fashion after the overnight falls.

Regional equity markets:

  • Shanghai Comp is barely changed, down about 0.1 of a % as of updating, Shenzen flat.
  • Nikkei, too, down tiny, 0.1%, while the hnag Seng lost 0.5%

Still to come:

  • RBA announcement due at 0430GMT - preview
  • Heads up for NZD traders - Dairy auction coming up overnight

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