• Portugal bailout deal includes up to 12 bln of possible banking sector recapitalisation – Source
  • Portugal opposition PSD party says will analyse bailout deal, make decision
  • ECB sources see more rate hikes on the way, discussion of timing. A lot of arguments being heard in favour of early move – Marketnews
  • UK April Nationwide house prices -0.2% m/m, weaker than median forecast of +0.2%
  • Italian April services PMI 52.2, down from 53.3 in March and below median forecast of 52.9
  • Euro zone April (final) services PMI 56.7, down from flash 56.9
  • UK April construction PMI 53.3, down from 56.4 and much weaker than median forecast of 55.5
  • Euro zone March retail sales -1.0% m/m, -1.7% y/y, demonstrably weaker than median forecasts of +0.1%, flat respectively. February revised upward to +0.3% m/m (prev -0.1%), +1.3% y/y (prev +0.1%)
  • S&P: Bank of England rate hike “almost certain in next 3 months”
  • Chinese Deputy FinMin Li: Will continue to take comprehensive measures to curb inflation

Is it me or was that a very busy morning? Seemed to border on the manic at times, although it might just be my medication. Oh well.

EUR/USD up at 1.4855 from early 1.4805, having been as high as 1.4878 so far. Asian central banks bought early, getting the ball rolling.

Then BIS sold above 1.4870, and has subsequently been seen selling again around same level, helping cap things for time being.

Buy stops seen through 1.4905. Still basically ensconsed in well-trodden 1.4750-1.4900 range, when all said and done . So much so, talk has emerged that there’s a 1.4750-1.4900 dnt in play, expiring Friday. Not sure I believe it, infact I think it could well be cobblers. But then that’s just me.

USD/JPY up marginally at 81.10 from early 80.90. Talk decent buy orders clustered 80.70 down to 80.50, said to include Kampo interest. US treasury yields little firmer, especially in short end, which will be lending some support.

AUD/USD very marginally firmer at 1.0830 from early 1.0815. Pairing rallied strongly early, helped by solid Asian central bank buying.

We then went into reverse as large US custody bank sold decent amounts starting above 1.0870.

Cable firmer at 1.6510 from early 1.6470. Been very choppy going though. Very poor UK construction PMI (see above) caused an appreciable swoon at one stage, before quick recovery. The recovery was no doubt aided and abetted by some timely comments from S&P (see above)

Talk sell stops below 1.6430. Sell orders 1.6540/50, buy stops above.

USD/CHF little changed at .8625. We dipped briefly to .8597 before recovering. Talk of local banks lined up on the bid down at .8590/00.