- ADP employment 133K vs 148K exp
- Initial jobless claims 383K vs 370K exp
- Prelim US Q1 GDP 1.9%, as expected
- Chicago PMI 52.7 vs 56.5 exp
- Reports, later denied (somewhat) that IMF making Spanish bailout contingencies
- Challenger layoffs 61.9K vs 40.6K prior
- Fitch: Greek exit risk is material and rising
- ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo: ECB can’t fill vacuum created by government inaction
- Greek polls put New Democracy in slim lead
- Samaras begins to pander
- Danes cut rates to 0.45% from 0.60%
- Exit polls show yes side way ahead in Irish referendum
- Fed’s Lacker warns on inflation
- Spain fin min says Germany must be aware of euro imbalances
- US 10-year yields hit 1.51%, fresh lows in bund yields
- crude as low as $85.86
- EUR/USD touches 1.2336, EUR/JPY hits 12-year low
- USD/CAD hits 2012 high
- S&P 500 -0.2% to 1310; drops 6.3% on month
- JPY leads, GBP lags on day
US economic data wasn’t terrible but it was at the low end of expectations and in a jittery market that was enough to trigger a wave of worry. EUR/USD entered US trading a shade above 1.24 but went straight down to 1.2337 in the final hour of European trading. The final push came as barriers at 1.2350 were popped. Typically, after the European close sentiment recovered and EUR/USD bounced to 1.2395. Back down to 1.2364, last.
The yen was the winner on the day as the combination of exporter repatriation and tumbling yields made the safe-haven currency the place to be. Shortly after the US open, USD/JPY took out the European low of 76.71. Bids at 78.50/45 held up for a time but a break of the 2012 low in EUR/JPY broke the market’s back, sending dollar-yen to 78.21.
The Australian dollar was surprisingly resilient as the Asia low of 0.9673 wasn’t even tested. The pair jumped 30 pips late in the day to 0.9770 on an equity market headfake but it most-recently drifted to 0.9733.
USD/CAD broke through a minor double-top at 1.0312 to 1.0365. Corporate and sovereign selling beat the pair back to 1.0310.