Forex news for North American trade on April 16, 2021:
- US April prelim U Mich consumer sentiment 86.5 vs 89.0 expected
- US March housing starts 1739K vs 1613K expected
- Cuban leader Raul Castro confirms he will step down this weekend
- Kaplan sees unemployment moving back toward 4% by the end of the year
- NY Fed weekly GDP Nowcast estimate up to 6.8% from 6.1% last week
- Moderna to reduce vaccine deliveries to UK and Canada in April
- Fed's Waller sees 2.5% inflation this year
- China's Sinovac real-world vaccine test data leaves a bit to be desired
- Canada February wholesale trade sales -0.7% m/m vs -0.4% expected
- Baker Hughes oil rig count 344 versus 337 last week
Markets:
- Gold up $11 to $1775
- US 10-year yield up 1 bps to 1.58%
- WTI crude oil down 34-cents to $63.12
- S&P 500 up 17 points to record 4188
- GBP leads, NZD lags
The impressive reversal in cable on Friday was the main event in the FX market. It slumped down to 1.3717 in Asia but turned around and continued higher right through the end of the day. The result is a 50-pip gain and a bullish reversal to the highest in 10 days. The minor downtrend since February also broke.
Aside from that the FX moves were contained. Equities found a bid after an early stumble but it didn't translate (for the second day) into buying into antipodeans. In fact, NZD/USD was under steady selling pressure into the London fix as part of a broader USD bid.
The euro continues to probe 1.20. It hit 1.1995 in New York trade but couldn't get through and then backed off 20 pips lower. It's lined up to finish at 1.1980 so the battle for 1.20 is sure to be a theme early next week.
USD/CAD was a loser today in a bit of a catchup trade after the loonie's underperformance yesterday. Oil didn't do much but the pair fell back to 1.2500 from 1.2550. Again, that's going to be pivotal in the week ahead.
Gold extended its break above the March/April highs and continued to $1783 before giving back $8. It's been tied to the move in rates. US 10-s fell as low as 1.55% in Asia before climbing back to 1.58%.
In crypto, dogecoin went absolutely insane, tripling in the past 48 hours and climbing around 400% on the week. It was up 150x y/y at today's high in another sign that nothing means anything anymore.
The economic calendar is light in the early part of next week so it's going to be all about the flows.
