Forex news for North American trade on April 20, 2018:
- Canada March CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% expected
- Canada February retail sales +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected
- Trump rails against OPEC
- OPEC's Barkindo responds to Trump: We saved the oil industry
- ECB's Draghi: Confidence in the inflation outlook has increased
- Eurozone April advance consumer confidence +0.40 vs -0.10 expected
- Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count 820 vs 815 prior
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Euro longs hit a record
Fedspeak:
- Kashkari: I'm more concerned about the flattening of the yield curve
- Brainard: Outlook is consistent with gradual hikes
- Williams says he sees continued rate increases
- Evans: Yield curve less of a concern than a couple months ago
- Evans says some cyclical upturn in inflation would be welcome
Markets:
- Gold down $9 to $1336
- WTI crude flat at $68.26
- S&P 500 down 22 points to 2670
- US 10-year yields up 4.5 bps to 2.95% -- highest close of the year
- USD leads, NZD lags
The Canadian dollar was in focus to start the day but the US dollar stole the show later, aided by rising Treasury yields.
Both top-tier Canadian releases were poor with retail sales ex-autos flat compared to +0.4% expected. Core CPI measures were also a touch soft and the loonie was roundly hit. USD/CAD rose to 1.2750 and finished at the lows of the day, in a poor sign for the week ahead.
The rest of the commodity currencies also struggled. AUD/USD extended lower after an outside day on Thursday and finished down 60 pips to 0.7670.
In cable, Carney's BBC interview continued to resonate with many backing away from a May rate hike, or at least getting some seriously-cold feet. Support at 1.4000 has held so far.
EUR/USD whimpered and Draghi had some dovish comments. It was getting smoked and hit 1.2250 but fixing demand drew a line under it and bounced to 1.2288.
If you're looking for more on the ECB, check out the webinar here: Fate of the single currency to be decided by forthcoming ECB meeting
