Forex news for North American trading on October 29, 2021
- NASDAQ index erases -125 point decline. S&P and NASDAQ close at record levels
- Key economic releases and events for the week starting November 1
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $83.57
- Baker Hughes oil rig count +1 to 444
- Bill Ackman to Fed... It's time to taper immediately...
- Major European indices end the day mostly higher
- No let up in the rout in GBP and EUR
- US holiday retail sales will be especially hard to read this year
- Countdown to the month end London fix
- The next big shoe to drop in the global bond market
- UMich October US consumer sentiment final 71.7 vs 71.4 expected
- European natural gas prices tumble for the second day
- Canada August GDP +0.4% vs +0.7% expected
- US September PCE core inflation 3.6% versus 3.7% estimate
- The GBP (and CHF) are the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
- ECB's Holzmann: ECB should drive on sight when going about monetary policy next year
It was month-end and also a Friday, which can be a formula for illiquid market conditions due to the flows in the market. It became clear in the North American session that dollar buying was the order of course. Going into the London fixing at 11 AM ET/1600 GMT, buyers of the dollar started to exert even more strength.
The USD is ending the day is the strongest of the major currencies. The NZD is the weakest.
The dollars move to the upside saw the:
- EURUSD crack below its 200 and 100 hour moving averages at 1.1627 and 1.1616 respectively, the swing lows from Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday between 1.1581 1.1584, and the swing low from October 18 at 1.1571. The selling in the pair did not stop until reaching a low of 1.1534 a few hours later. The price has since rebounded to 1.1557, but is on pace to close below its 200 week moving average for the first time since July 2020 at 1.15657. Sellers are in control.
- GBPUSD also fall below its 200 and 100 hour moving averages at 1.3776 1.3761 respectively and then the swing lows from last week and this week at 1.3708. The pair move down to a low price of 1.36673 which was a just below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 29 low at 1.36722. In the new week if the price can remain below the 1.37085 swing lows from October 18 and October 27, the sellers would be in control
- USDJPY move above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 113.80 and 113.907 respectively. The current price is trading at 113.97. In the new trading week staying above the moving averages will tilt the bias more to the upside. For the week, the low price reached on Thursday saw the pair move to 113.24. That was just above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the October low to the October high at 113.211
- USDCHF moved back above its 200 day moving average at 0.9147 and swing lows from October 22 and October 25 near the 0.9149 level in the USDs run to the upside. The high price reached up to its 100 hour moving average near 0.9172. The high price reached just above that at 0.9175 before rotating to the downside into the close. The price is closing right around the aforementioned lows from October 22/25 at 0.9149 and just above the 200 day moving average at 0.9147. That area will be the barometer for buyers and sellers in the new week. Stay above keeps the buyers in play. Move below and the sellers assume full control.
In other markets as the trading week comes to a close shows:
- Spot gold down $16.51 or 0.92% at $1782.77. The price of gold reacted to the higher US dollar
- Spot silver is trading down $0.19 -0.78% at $23.87
- WTI crude oil futures are trading at $83.39.
- The price of bitcoin rebounded to $62,419 as we had closer to the weekend
In the US debt market, the yields had a big reversal after trading higher earlier in the session. The 30 year traded as high as 2.026% and is currently trading at 1.946%. The tenure yield traded as high as 1.619% is currently trading at 1.56%. Below are the high lows and current levels for the maturity spectrum:
In the US stock market, the NASDAQ index reacted to the move lower in yields and rallied into the close. It was down as much as 125 points at the low, but it is closing up 50.28 points at a new record level. The S&P and Dow industrial average also closed at record levels today.
The final numbers are showing:
- Dow industrial average +89.08 points or 0.25% at 35819.57
- S&P index up 8.98 points or 0.20% at 4605.39
- NASDAQ index up 50.28 points or 0.33% at 15498.40
Thank you for your support this week. Have a great and safe weekend