Forex news for NY trading on April 30, 2019
- The major indices are ending the session mixed. S&P closes at a record
- Everything about the moves today in crypto is curious but can be explained
- Westpac recommends buying EUR/USD
- US crude oil futures settle at $63.91
- Lindsey Graham says Stephen Moore Fed nomination "will be very problematic"
- Trump takes aim at Federal Reserve as policymakers meet
- Trump agreed to $2 trillion infrastructure package, Schumer says
- Labour agrees to back second referendum if it can't get changes to May's plan or general election
- European equity close: Small moves to end a great month
- White House's Mulvaney: US-China trade talks likely to be resolved 'one way or another'
- BOC's Poloz: Good reason to believe economy will accelerate in H2
- Month end rebalancing could be adding to USD weakness
- US April Conference Board consumer confidence 129.2 vs 126.8 expected
- US pending home sales for March 3.8% vs 1.5% estimate
- OPEC output fell to lowest since 2015 in April
- US February Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Tariffs at the start of US-China trade dispute are a major obstacle at finish line - report
- Canada February GDP -0.1% m/m vs 0.0% expected
- US 1Q employment cost index 0.7% versus 0.7% expected
- The GBP is the strongest. The AUD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
- Germany April preliminary CPI +1.0% vs +0.5% m/m expected
In other markets at the April month end:
- Spot gold is trading up $4.09 or 0.32% at $1283.94. The low reached $1279.80. The high extended to $1286.75. The lower dollar today and perhaps some flight to safety flows from the tensions in Venezuela contributed to the rise.
- Crude oil futures are traing at $63.78 after settling the day at $63.91. That is up $0.27 or 0.44%. The high reached $64.75, while the low extended to $63.30
In the US stock market, the US market was mixed as was the major European indices.
In the US debt market, yields were lower.
In Europe, the yields were mixed with Germany, France and UK higher. IN Germany, the preliminary CPI was better than expected at 1.0% vs 0.5% expected. Good news for that realease today and yields in Germany closed back above the 0.0% level.
The dollar moved lower in trading today. Traders might blame higher gold (while gold trader might blame the lower dollar for gold going up). They may also put the blame on the modest employment cost data for the quarter (0.7% is ok, not great). Yields across the yield curve were lower in the US and that might be a reason for some dollar weakness. Finally, and perhaps the most likely reason, is month end rebalancing contributed to weakness.
In contrast, to those weaker reasons for the dollar, pending home sales rebounded nicely by 3.8% in March. Pending home sales are thought as a barometer for existing home sales as they are contracted sales while existing sales (the vast majority of sales) are closed sales. Also stronger was consumer confidence which rose to 129.2 from 124.2 last month, and an estimate of 126.8.
Below are the % changes of the major currencies vs each other. The AUD (got off to a weak start on the back of the China weaker PMI data), and the USD were the weakest, and the GBP was the strongest of the major currencies. The pound benefitted from a technical squeeze that took the price above its 100 and 200 day MAs at 1.2960 and 1.29655.
The markets were impacted by technical breaks today
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved above its 200 hour MA in hte London morning session. As mentioned German inflation was better at 1.0% vs 0.5% expected. That MA was tested in the NY session at 1.1198 and held . The price moved back up to 1.1225 before settling a little lower at 1.2115. The break and the hold on the test at the 1.1200 level makes that the barometer for bulls and bears in the new day. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and the positive bias, starts to erode
GBPUSD. As mentioned, the GBPUSD broke back above the 200 day MA at 1.2960 and then the 100 day MA not far higher at 1.2965. That break, led to sellers turning to buyers, with the high extending to 1.3048. The range for the day was a healthy 125 pips. The move above the MAs gives the pair a more bullish bias. The 1.2998 to 1.3018 are support levels to eye on a dip. It would take moves below each to soften the tone for a potential retest of the daily MA levels. Absent a move below the 1.2998, the bulls remain firmly in control.
USDCAD: The USDCAD started the NY session between the 100 hour MA above (at 1.3466) and the 200 hour MA below (at 1.3428). The lower level was broken the and the price started to drift lower. The bottom stalled at 1.3380 before consolidating below the 1.3400 level (1.3398 was the high) into the close. Close risk is the 1.3400 level for sellers into the new day. More conservative risk for shorts is the 200 hour MA at 1.3428.
AUDUSD: The AUD was the weakest currency falling in the Asian sesssion on the weaker China data. However, versus the USD, the declines were more modest (only down marginally from yesterday). What the pair did do technically is hold above its 100 hour MA (currently at 0.70347) . That level will be eyed in the new day. Stay above keeps the buyers hanging on to some control. A move below (it tested that MA line 4 times since yesterday) and that control shifts back to the sellers.