Forex news for NY traders on March 9, 2017

  • Stocks end the day near unchanged levels
  • Forex technical analysis: AUDNZD stays above 200 week MA
  • Saudi Arabia to US oil firms: Don't assume OPEC will extend cuts
  • WTI crude futures settle at $49.28 /bbl
  • Divide and conquer will be the strategy for both sides in Brexit talks
  • Spicer: There are a 'few months' to raise debt ceiling
  • US Treasury to suspend sales of state/local debt on March 15
  • Trump still committed to restoring Glass-Steagall - White House
  • Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD back in the black for the day
  • US sells 30-year bonds at 3.170% vs 3.175% WI
  • Gold falls and tests $1200 support. Moves away from 100 day MA
  • How the US dollar has fared in the past 33 Fed hikes
  • Q4 2016 household net worth increased $2.043T
  • Snapchart: Crude oil fall stalls near 50% and 200 day MA
  • European stocks love the Draghi show
  • GBPUSD continues slide, but....
  • EIA Natural gas storage change -68 bcf vs -62 bcf estimate
  • EURUSD backs off toward support
  • ECB review: The words have changed but the tune remains the same
  • QE is on track time-wise and quantity wise say Draghi
  • Draghi: A lot of the risks we were worried about have not materialised
  • Draghi: Governing council members need to be convinced on sustained inflation
  • ECB monetary policy has been successful says Draghi
  • ECB's Draghi: QE will run until the ECB see a sustained pickup in inflation
  • The US Import price index YoY for Feb 4.6% vs 4.4% est
  • Canada new housing price index Jan mm +0.1% vs +0.1% exp
  • US initial jobless claims 243k vs 235k exp
  • A snapshot of the strongest and weakest before Draghi

In other markets today:

  • Spot gold is trading at $1200 at the end of the day. Key support level.
  • WTI crude trades at $49.57, down -1.41% and closes below the $50 for the frst time since early December
  • US major stock indices end the day with fractional gains (nearly unchanged across the board). S&P up 0.08%. Nasdaq up 0.02%. Dow up 0.01%.
  • US bond yields continued to move higher with the 2 year yield up 1.8 bp. The 5 year yield is up 4.2 bp. The 10 year yield nearly reached the 2.61% high from December. It is ending the session at 2.605%

The NY session had ECBs Draghi as the catalyst. The central bank did keep stimulus the same but Draghi did note that there was steady growth and increasing employment. That the gains were broadened across sectors and countries. That risks of deflation was largely disappeared, and that lots of the risks the CB was worried about had not materialized. This helped lead to the EUR pairs moving higher - along with European stocks and yields.

In the US today, the US Import prices rose a bit more than expected and the weekly US initial employment claims remained solid at 243K but up from the 223K low reached last week. There was little reaction to each.

Tomorrow the US employment report will be released. With the expectations at 200K (up from about 185K before the better than expected ADP estimate of 297K released yesterday), the move higher in US yields continued with the 10 year knocking on the high yield from December of 2.61%.

Gold also moved lower, but the dollar was mixed - losing against the EUR and CHF, but rising against the JPY, CAD, AUD and NZD. It was near unchanged against the GBP today. It would take an employment number < than 100K to likely persuade traders that the next hike of 25 basis points will not come next week. The question will be "Is there more left in the dollar higher trade tomorrow?". To answer that, the technicals will be eyed. Until then, however, I would expect the ranges to be contained.

What are some of the technicals saying for some of the major pairs?

For the EURUSD, the pair is ending the day near a cluster of MAs defined byt the 200 hour MA at 1.0564, the 100 hour MA at 1.0573 and the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart at 1.0575. That 11 pips area (from 1.0564-75) will define bullish above, and bearish below. On a break lower, the 1.0550 and then 1.0520 and 1.0494 will be eyed for support. The 1.0494 was home to lows in Feb and also in March. On the topside, the 1.0629-32, 1.0639 (200 bar MA on the 4-hour) and the 100 day MA at 1.0661 will be targeted. With the price trading right near the cluster of MAs, the market is setting up for a "let the market decide at 8:30 AM tomorrow" trader. In the meantime, we might see the pair trade a little below and then a little above (just may hunch).

The USDJPY traded to the highest level since January 27th today (high reached 114.995) AND closed near that high level. So the market is a bit more bullish into the close. The 50% of the move down from the December high price of 118.65 comes in at 115.12 and that is the next hurdle to get to and through in the new trading day. I would not be surprised to see the market look to trade around that midpoint before the Employment report. A stronger number tomorrow should solicit more buying tomorrow - with 115.95 to 116.09 the next key target area. ON the downside, it would take a move below the 114.30 level to turn the bulls potentially around back below a broken trend line on the 4-hour chart).

The GBPUSD had an up and down day, and after the pair stalled at the 1.21377 area on three hourly bars (with a fourth bar failing on a break lower to 1.21.32), the price shot higher and retested the day's high price just short of the 1.2200 level (the high reached 1.21942 twice today). It seemed like the pair would close in the black at that point. When the price is down 8 of 9 trading days, that would be a step in the "bottom is found" direction. However, it was not to be. In the last hour, the price dipped back below the close at 1.2165 and ended the day at 1.2162. Now 3 pips down is not the end of the world, but the last 10 days still shows 9 down days and 1 up day. The 1.2137, 1.2121 and 1.2087 are the targets on the downside. On the upside, getting above the 1.2200 level and the falling 100 hour MA at 1.2206 will be eyed in the new day. The price of the GBPUSD has not closed above the 100 hour MA since February 24th - that was the 1st down day 10 days ago.

For the AUDUSD the price closed below the 200 and 100 day MAs at 0.7531 and 0.7513 respectively. The 0.7450 level is the mid point of the move up from the end of December low. That - and the swing low from Sept 2016 at 0.7442 is the next downside target as long as those MAs stall any corrections in trading today. Bears in control.

The NZDUSD has the 0.6881 and then the December low of 0.6861 as the next downside targets. Like the GBPUSD, it has been down 9 of the last 10 trading days (the only gain in the 10 days was a 3 pip gain on Feb 28th). The last 7 days is down for this pair. The decline has sent the AUDNZD to upside this week. The price of that pair is trading above the 200 week MA for the first time since November 2012 at 1.0855. A close above that MA line on Friday will be the first close above since the week of Sept 2, 2012. That's a long time ago (I was young back then).

The near end of day snapshot of the strongest and weakest currencies show the EURUSD is the strongest with the JPY the weakest. The USD was mixed with the greenback down against the EUR, CHF, up against the JPY, CAD, AUD and NZD and unchanged vs. the GBP.

To all my friends in the Asian session who will not be around to trade the employment reports tomorrow (Canada will also release) have a great and safe weekend).