- US CPI rises 0.4% in November, core rate flat; not as high as feared after PPI jump
- US current account deficit rises to $108 bln; as expected
- US housing starts rise 8.9% in November after 10% slump in October
- Germany approves 2010 budget; includes record deficit
- Goldman Sachs recommends long EUR/USD at 1.4545; target 1.55, stoploss at 1.43
- ECB’s Wellink warns against excess optimism for recovery
- S&P downgrades Greece to BBB+; doubts government resolve to fight debt
- FOMC retains statement that rates to stay unusually low for an extended period; to allow little-used liquidity programs to end February 1; ups economic assessment
- Greek FinMin: S&P cut because Greece lacks credibility
Another pretty busy day today given the rapid approach of the holidays and the end of the calendar year. EUR/USD was quite volatile, rallying past the London high at 1.4580 to reach 1.4590 after Goldman Sachs recommended EUR/USD longs. The inability to overcome resistance at 1.4590 frustrated short-term traders and prompted a drop back to the 1.4535 area ahead of the FOMC. A second downgrade of Greece helped undermine the EUR.
EUR/USD jumped to 1.4580/85 after the FOMC as algorithms jumped on the inclusion of the Fed’s dovish assurance that rates will stay low for an extended period. A very heavy sell order from a German bank took EUR/USD down to 1.4520 in a matter of minutes and before long we were attacking the 1.4500 barriers. China defended the barrier successfully. 1.4505 proved the low for a second-day running. EUR/USD drifted back up to the 1.4535 area at the close.
Stoploss orders are building up either side of the 1.4500/90 range. A double bottom has formed on the hourly charts, setting up a bounce to the 1.4680/85 area if it is triggered by a break through 1.4590. 1.4480 is important support below the market. Stops are seen now below 1.4500, 1.4480 and 1.4450. Sovereign bids are said to be solid near the 1.4480 level.
USD/JPY was paid as high as 89.99 after the FOMC but was able to overcome very large orders keyed-up in EBS at 90.00. It traded almost as if a barrier were in play. Exporter offers are rumored through the 90.10 area above which stops are noted.
Cable provided the usual thrills and spills, reaching 1.6410 late in London after triggering stops above 1.6375 before falling back as low as 1.6299 after the Fed. I’ll say no more.