• EUR/USD rallies nearly 3 cents before relenting just short of 1.4000; QE the catalyst again
  • UK announces GBP 81 bln in budget cuts over 4 years
  • Germany’s Merkel: Euro remains vulnerable, protected by rescue deal; 2010 growth to be above 3%, ESFS must expire on schedule
  • Medley Global Advisors: Fed to buy at least $500 bln in Treasuries over 6 months after November FOMC meeting.
  • US Treasury: G20 finance ministers meeting this weekend a major stepping stone toward currency flexibility and global rebalancing
  • Bank of Canada MPR: Done hiking rates for now
  • BOC’s Carney: Our forecast assumes further Fed easing; FX tensions could impact global growth
  • EU: Fears protectionism unless FX inflexibility resolved
  • Beige Book: Economy continues to grow slowly
  • S&P 500 rises 1% to 1178; 10 yr Treasury unchanged at 2.48%
  • Gold rises $10 to $1343, oil rises $2.28 to $81.77

Stunningly high volatility today as the greenback gave back yesterday’s gains.

EUR/USD was in recovery mode in early US trade already up to 1.3870 from 1.3700 overnight. It launched higher shortly after the cash market on Wall Street as very downbeat comments from German Chancellor Merkel and a report from New York-based think-tank Medley Global Advisors filtered into the market.

The fact that euro held its ground after Merkel said the euro was still vulnerable to the same forces that sparked the sovereign debt crisis sent traders running to cover shorts while Medley’s prediction of at least $500 bln in QE in the first six months of the program and the potential for more over a 12-18 month time frame added fuel to the fire. We rallied as high as 1.3991, overcoming, by a handful of ticks, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4160/1.3700 decline at 1.3985 in the process. Sellers remain ahead of 1.4000/05 but stops are clustered above 1.4010. Sellers are seen ahead of 1.4030 with more stops above that level…

USD/JPY fell to a fresh 15-year low at 80.84 this morning as the dollar slump intensified. We did not spend a great deal of time below 81.00, however, as traders covered shorts taken in anticipation of large stops in the 80.70/80 region being triggered. We end the day testing resistance in the 81.15/20 area on the very short-term charts. Not until we get above 82.00 will traders truly begin to sweat.

AUD/USD retraced much of its recent losses, flying as high as 0.9890 before consolidating in quiet NY afternoon trade. Traders await Chinese GDP data this evening and will likely buy AUD on strong figures. The market assumes the figures will be strong after the PBOC went ahead and raised rates yesterday.

USD/CAD slipped back to 1.0225 despite the BOC ruling out further near-term rates hikes and cutting growth forecasts for the rest of this year and all of next.

GBP/USD’s rebound was muted a bit relative to its continental cousin because EUR/GBP rose sharply as EUR/USD rallied. The big budget cuts in the UK announced today sort have got lost in the shuffle.

What can we take away from the crazy price action today?Two things: EUR/USD still struggles near the 1.4000 level, so look to sell rallies toward that level with a stop above 1.4030.

USD/JPY still finds buyers on dips below the 81.00 level. A move through 82.00 might be enough to prompt some stall shorts to give up on USD/JPY in disgust…