PARIS (MNI) – France’s labor unions claimed victory Tuesday
afternoon amid strong worker and student turnout in the fourth national
strike against the government’s planned pension reform, according to
several French media accounts.

Though their estimates differed, government and union sources both
said that participation in today’s coordinated walkouts was higher than
in the previous strikes. Today’s walkouts are primarily affecting public
transport, oil refineries and education, with significant disruption in
national and international train service as well as commercial aviation.

Unlike the previous strikes, the first of which was on September 7,
today’s actions are widely expected to continue tomorrow and perhaps for
much of the rest of the week.

The Confederation General Du Travail (CGT), one of the biggest
unions, announced that its workers in the Paris metropolitan train and
bus system have already voted to carry the strike over into Wednesday.
Workers in other unions and other sectors are expected to hold general
assemblies later today and tomorrow to vote on whether to continue
striking.

The strikes are occurring as the French Senate votes on the pension
plan of President Nicolas Sarkozy, which has already been passed in the
National Assembly, France’s lower house. The pension reform, considered
Sarkozy’s legislative piece de resistance before the 2012 presidential
election, would raise the minimum retirement age in France by two years
to 62 and the maximum age also by two years to 67. The Senate has
already approved the change in the minimum age and is expected to pass
the higher maximum age as well.

The reform is considered an important element in the government’s
longer-term plan to return France’s public sector finances to balance by
2016. Successful passage of the pension changes is seen by financial
markets as a litmus test of the government’s fiscal credibility. An
extension of this week’s strikes could add to pressures on France’s
credit rating.

“If the government has to step back, it will imply that further
structural reforms will be extremely difficult to implement,” said BNP
Paribas economist Dominique Barbet. “Consequently, the prospect of
meeting the 3%-of-GDP budget deficit target by 2013 — or even with a
one-year delay — would be seriously endangered.”

Barbet added: “This is why we believe the government has no option
but to remain firm, even if this increases the risk that it loses the
2012 elections.”

In face of the ongoing protest, which is now more than a month old,
Sarkozy’s government has already made several concessions — including
earlier retirement for people who started work at an early age, who have
faced significant physical hardship in their jobs, or who interrupted
their careers to raise children.

However, the government has steadfastly refused to compromise on
basic principle of raising the retirement age. France’s Prime Minister
Francois Fillon today appeared to rule out any more compromise, telling
parliamentary members of his ruling UMP party that the government has
reached “the end of what is possible” in terms of concessions, the
business daily Les Echos reported. “Now what’s needed is to keep our
cool and not engage in provocation,” Fillon was quoted as saying.

The strike is having the biggest impact on the national railway
company, SNCF, where disruption of train service has been severe. The
CGT said 53.75% of train drivers participated today, compared to 48.8%
in the September 23 strike. SNCF management, as would be expected, put
the number lower: it said 40.4% were on strike today, but that was still
up from its September 23 estimate of 37%.

Only one-third of regularly scheduled fast-trains (TGVs) departed
today, and only about 40% of other train traffic was assured.

At Charles De Gaulle Airport north of Paris, about 30% of flights
were cancelled. At Orly, the airport just south of the capital, 50% of
flights never left the ground.

The movement also hit oil production, with work at refineries
slowing significantly and closing down altogether at some locations. In
the schools, unions rejoiced today in a big turnout of students for the
first time since the movement began. Between 300 and 400 high schools
across France were affected, according to the respective estimates of
the government and the unions. Some high schools were shut down
altogether, others encumbered by protesting students.

The Education Ministry said 22.1% of public school teachers joined
the strike, but the unions said the correct numbers were 48% at the
primary level and 45% in secondary schools.

Today’s strike is expected to culminate in another day of mass
protest next Saturday.

–Paris newsroom, +331-42-71-55-40; bwolfson@marketnews.com

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