Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI

November: -0.2% m/m, +1.5% y/y
October: flat m/m, +1.7% y/y
—
Pan-German CPI

MNI median forecast: -0.1% m/m, +1.9% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.2% to +0.1% m/m

October: flat m/m, +2.0% y/y
—

BERLIN (MNI) – Consumer prices in the western German state of
Baden-Wuerttemberg fell 0.2% in November, dampening the annual inflation
rate to +1.5% from +1.7%, the state statistics office said Wednesday.

The monthly result is below the median forecast of -0.1% for
pan-German CPI in a MNI survey of analysts. Brandenburg and Hesse also
posted a 0.2% drop, while North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria and Saxony
registered 0.1% declines.

Downward pressure on monthly inflation in Baden-Wuerttemberg came
from energy prices, with heating oil down 3.4%, motor fuel down 2.8% and
household energy down 0.4%.

Packaged holiday tours fell 1.2%. Hotel and restaurant services
decreased by 1.1%.

Upward pressure came from food prices, which climbed 1.4% on the
month, with seasonal food up 4.0%.

Annual inflation was marked by higher energy and food prices.
Household energy rose 3.3%, motor fuel climbed 2.5% and heating oil
increased by 2.0%.

Food prices were 4.7% higher than a year ago, with seasonal produce
up a whopping 10.4%. Prices for clothing and shoes were up 2.2% and
those for alcoholic drinks and tobacco products up 2.3%.

The Finance Ministry said last week that inflation will likely
remain moderate for the time being, pointing to slowing input prices due
to the weakening global economy. Annual producer price inflation fell to
a three-month low in October.

The latest PMI poll showed input cost inflation also hitting a
three-month low in November (53.2), while output charges posted their
biggest decline (48.8) since early 2010.

The OECD said Tuesday that “the costs of producing renewable energy
as well as strengthening domestic demand and wage growth are projected
to keep [German] consumer price inflation close to 2% in 2013 and 2014.”

Some analysts, however, expect domestic inflation to pick up over
the medium term, arguing that monetary policy in the Eurozone is too
expansionary for Germany.

For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$]