GfK Unemployment – July
Consumer Morale change rate
– August – (‘000s) (%)

Median forecast* 5.5 -10.0 7.0
High forecast 5.8 -3.0 7.0
Low forecast 5.2 -25.0 6.9
Previous period 5.7 -8.0 7.0
—
No of responses 11 12 10
—

4Cast 5.5 -3.0 7.0
Action Economics na na na
Barclays Cap. 5.6 -5.0 7.0
BNP Paribas 5.2 -5.0 7.0
Capital Economics 5.5 na 6.9
Citi na -6.0 na
Commerzbank 5.5 -10.0 na
Cred. Agricole na na na
DZ Bank 5.4 -15.0 7.0
Goldman Sachs na -5.0 na
ING 5.5 na 7.0
Investec na na na
JP Morgan na na na
Natixis 5.7 -15.0 7.0
Nomura na na na
RBS na na na
Soc. Generale na -25.0 7.0
UBS 5.8 -10.0 7.0
Unicredit 5.8 -20.0 na
West LB 5.5 -10.0 7.0
Westpac na na na
—

CPI – July (flash) HICP – July (flash)
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median forecast* 0.3 2.3 0.3 2.4
High forecast 0.5 2.6 0.5 2.6
Low forecast 0.1 2.2 0.2 2.3
Previous period 0.0 2.4 0.1 2.3
—
No of responses 10 11 7 7
—

4Cast 0.2 2.2 0.2 2.3
Action Economics na na na na
Barclays Cap. 0.4 2.5 0.4 2.5
BNP Paribas 0.3 2.3 0.3 2.4
Capital Economics 0.5 2.6 na na
Citi 0.5 2.5 0.5 2.6
Commerzbank 0.5 2.6 na na
Cred. Agricole na na na na
DZ Bank na na na na
Goldman Sachs na na na na
ING 0.1 2.3 na na
Investec na na na na
JP Morgan na na na na
Natixis 0.3 2.3 0.3 2.3
Nomura na na na na
RBS na na na na
Soc. Generale 0.3 2.3 0.3 2.4
UBS 0.2 2.2 0.2 2.3
Unicredit na 2.5 na na
West LB na na na na
Westpac na na na na
—

Retail Sales Import Prices
– June – – June –
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median forecast* 1.8 -3.3 -0.1 7.1
High forecast 3.0 -1.6 0.3 7.7
Low forecast 0.0 -6.5 -0.4 6.7
Previous period -2.5 3.1 -0.6 8.1
—
No of responses 9 4 6 4
—

4Cast 2.2 na 0.0 7.7
Action Economics na na na na
Barclays Cap. 1.8 na na na
BNP Paribas 1.5 -2.1 -0.1 7.1
Capital Economics na na na na
Citi 1.6 na -0.4 6.7
Commerzbank 2.5 -6.5 na na
Cred. Agricole na na na na
DZ Bank na na -0.4 na
Goldman Sachs 3.0 na na na
ING 2.0 -1.6 na na
Investec na na na na
JP Morgan na na na na
Natixis 0.0 -4.5 na na
Nomura na na na na
RBS na na na na
Soc. Generale na na na na
UBS 1.5 na 0.3 na
Unicredit na na na na
West LB na na na na
Westpac na na 0.0 7.1
———————————————————————–

* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, July 22.

[TOPICS: M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]