The 'Monday effect' kicking in again
The figure here is lower compared to the record number of daily infections posted two days ago, as the virus situation across Europe remains rather precarious.
The second wave is here and it remains to be seen how well the region will cope with the latest developments and how much all of this will weigh on the recovery in Q4.
As for Germany, active cases surpassed 60,000 as of yesterday - the highest since April - but the good news is that the death rate remains low with another 12 deaths reported today - bringing the total tally to 9,789 persons for now. But RKI warns that:
Since calendar week 30, the proportion of deaths among COVID-19 cases has been consistently below 1% and is thus markedly lower than among cases in the spring, particularly in April. However, it is regarded as implausible that the virus has become less pathogenic. Rather, the low proportion of deaths can be explained as follows: On the one hand, recent infections have occurred mainly among young people, who rarely experience a severe course of disease. On the other hand there is also broader testing, which means more milder cases are identified. As elderly and vulnerable people are increasingly infected with SARS-CoV-2, hospitalisations and deaths are increasing. Severe cases and deaths can mainly be prevented through decreased transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
Once again, all of this ties back to the economic recovery situation and if tighter restrictions are called for, that will dampen the mood and also the optimism in the euro and European assets in the coming quarter. That's a considerable risk for the ECB as well.
