Real, seasonally adjusted retail sales:
January: -1.6% m/m, +1.6% y/y
MNI survey median: +0.7% m/m, +0.3% y/y
MNI survey range: -0.5% to +0.8% m/m
December: +0.1% m/m, +0.3% y/y (revised from -1.4%/-0.9%)
FRANKFURT (MNI) – German retail sale levels fell faster in January
than even the most pessimistic forecasts had expected, touching an
eight-month low, while December’s decline was revised up to a modest
increase, the Federal Statistical Office reported on Friday.
Taking into account December’s upward revision, January’s 1.6% drop
brought overall turnover to +1.6% on the year, the best result since
August. Compared to the 4Q average, sales were down 1.7% at the start of
the year.
Disaggregating the annual figure, food, drink and tobacco sales
increased 1.2%, while non-food sales were 2.0% higher.
Retailers polled in last month’s PMI reported a robust increase in
monthly sales in February, lifting the headline indicator to 55.3. The
report also noted that respondents were optimistic about the outlook for
sales in March.
With jobless fears well below average and upcoming wage
negotiations underpinning households’ income expectations, Germans
remain in a spending mood, especially for big-ticket items. A recent
European Commission survey showed that the proportion of consumers who
made major purchases recently grew in February to a one-year high.
However, ongoing tensions between Iran and the West, which have
pushed Brent crude to record highs in euro terms recently, pose a
significant risk and could lead to a retrenchment in German
discretionary spending.
Inflation figures from six of the largest German states indicated
significant upward pressure stemming from energy last month, resulting
in the first annual rise in the national rate since September.
— Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720-142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com —
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