January: +1.3% m/m, +3.7% y/y

MNI survey median: +0.6% m/m, +3.2% y/y
MNI survey range: +0.1% to +0.9% m/m

December: +0.3% m/m, +3.9% y/y
November: +0.4% m/m, +6.0% y/y
—

FRANKFURT (MNI) – German import price inflation accelerated in
January to a one-year high, boosted by all major components, the Federal
Statistical Office reported on Wednesday.

After slowing modestly in December, import prices jumped 1.3% in
January, beating all expectations and resulting in an annual rise of
3.7%.

Excluding crude oil (+4.3% m/m, +17.7% y/y) and petroleum products
(+6.8% m/m, +18.6% y/y), core import prices increased 0.7% on the month
and 1.6% on the year.

Amid mounting tensions over the EU’s embargo of Iranian oil, crude
prices surpassed $125 a barrel this week, underlining upside risks for
imported inflation.

The International Energy Agency argues that market participants may
be overestimating the impact of reduced oil from the Islamic Republic in
a period when slowing economic activity could dampen energy demand.

“The market in 2012 likely has sufficient supply-side flexibility –
between existing OPEC spare capacity and expected 2012 capacity
additions among OPEC and non-OPEC producers – to adjust to any loss in
Iranian volumes,” the agency said in its latest Oil Market Report.

“There is also, as ever, the back-stop provided by strategic stocks
in the event that market mechanisms fail,” it reminded. “Despite these
assurances, perceptions of impending supply issues are clearly placing a
floor under oil prices for now.”

Signs are already pointing to increased pipeline price pressures.
The February PMI surveys linked costlier energy to a significant jump in
input price inflation.

Often the first to reflect changing trends in commodity prices,
intermediate goods imports were 0.5% more expensive than in December,
but still 0.7% cheaper compared to January of last year

Imports of capital goods were also 0.5% more expensive on the
month, resulting in an annual rise of 0.9%. Consumer goods import prices
were up 0.8% on the month, as durable goods prices rose 0.5% and
non-durables were up 0.9%. On the year, consumer durable import prices
increased 3.2%.

Export prices were 0.8% higher on the month, leaving the annual
rate steady at 2.1%, the statistics office added.

— Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com —

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]