Real, seasonally adjusted retail sales:

June: +6.3% m/m, -1.0% y/y

MNI survey median: +1.8% m/m, -3.3% y/y
MNI survey range: flat to +3.0% m/m

May: -2.5% m/m, +3.1% y/y (revised from -2.8%/+2.2%)

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Turnover in the German retail sector rebounded
sharply in June to the highest level in over four years in
calendar-adjusted terms, the Federal Statistical Office reported on
Friday.

After dropping 2.5% in May, sales bounced back 6.3% on the month to
give a 2.5% rise on the year in calendar-adjusted terms (-1.0% y/y not
adjusted for working days).

Food drink and tobacco sales, for which only annual results are
available, were 0.1% lower on the year in real terms, while non-food
sales fell 1.7% over the same period.

While the ongoing Greek crisis and its potential impact on Germany
have put a damper on consumer morale, households’ willingness to spend
remains at high levels, according to the market research group GfK.

“Pleasing development on the jobs market in particular is ensuring
that consumers are still in the mood to buy,” the GfK Group said
Tuesday. “Falling unemployment figures are allaying employees’ fears of
losing their jobs and therefore also increasing their planning security,
which is particularly important for larger purchases.”

Supporting this assessment, the European Commission’s July survey
showed Germans’ intentions to make major purchases in the near term
rising to a five-month high as job worries receded. Retailers’ outlook
for the near term also improved, rebounding to its highest level since
March.

July, however, might bring a correction. The retail PMI showed
sales rising at their slowest pace in nine months, knocking the
indicator down to 50.7, while margins fell at the fastest rate since
April 2010.

August is not expected to be much better, according to the PMI
report. The slowdown in consumer spending had been so abrupt that for
“the first time since February 2010, retailers reported downbeat
sentiment about meeting next month’s sales targets.”

— Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720-142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com —

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