Gold - building a base for higher? Forecasts.

HSBC says gold has managed to stay above USD1200 and looks to be building a base.

• This despite ongoing tightening monetary policies.
• We think gold may edge higher, but with little fanfare and expect the market to face headwinds.

Longer term:

• we are moderately bullish ... we anticipate moderately higher gold prices this year and in 2018.
• Gold should be supported by likely declines in the USD in 2H, notably against the EUR,
• That said, we expect tighter monetary policies and low inflation globally to create headwinds to rallies.
• Tightening actions by the Fed and other major central banks create a negative backdrop for gold prices.
• But increased financial market volatility would be gold-friendly.
• We expect a mild recovery in physical demand including jewellery albeit from relatively low levels.

Forecasts:

• We leave our average price forecasts for 2017, 2018, 2019 and long term unchanged at USD1,282/oz, USD1,300/oz, USD1,330/oz and USD1,350/oz respectively.